All Things Equal

Oh hi! I’m Jiggly. And it’s a Tuesday.

This season started with a real bad stumble, didn’t it? I wrote a whole column series that ended up being kinda off-tone by the time we got to the end of it. Then, I posted a column where I completely flopped at navigating writing about a sensitive topic. Then the next week when I tried to write something light and fun, I was incredibly late to writing it because of a tornado in the month of February, so it never came out. Honestly, I think the Chicago Fire as a team are kinda going through something a bit similar to start out their season. They aren’t exactly doing anything “wrong” in the fundamentals, but clearly, they aren’t doing anything right enough to prove they’re a good team. Same. After watching the game this past weekend, I think I’ll take a moment to step away from my usual goal of talking about the culture of the Fire to actually talk about what’s on the pitch. Because even if I’m not normally the guy you expect tactical analysis from, there are some things that really bother me about how the Fire seem to be so close, yet so far from actually improving as a squad.

All Things Equal

Over the past two weeks, the Chicago Fire have gone up against two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference and have handled themselves fairly well according to most metrics. Obviously, 1 point out of two games is a pretty rough stat, but there are other things to look at here. Against Philadelphia, the Fire didn’t look that outmatched, which is surprising considering they lost such a key player so early into the match. The attack looked like it was waking up. There were players that seemed like they’d finally fixed their biggest issues in the offseason like Xherdan Shaqiri getting more mobile and Brian Gutiérrez finally figuring out how to shoot the ball. Victory was a very distinct possibility (and I think that may haunt the team later in the season). Then, back home against Cincinnati, despite the final score, pretty much all other stats went hand in hand. Possession was basically even, pass accuracy and number of passes were within range of each other, and even the number of tackles were identical. But the Fire couldn’t get past either of these teams. And while things started well in Philly going into Cincy, the real issues started to come into focus. That “new look” for the Fire dissipated within the first 15 minutes against Cincy, almost as though it was never even there.

Is this an overreaction? Maybe. Probably. But two’s a coincidence, and three’s a trend. So what better way to avoid a downward trend than to fix things before we get to that point? Because this next game will be against the third of the three best teams in the East and they’re probably the most perfect example of what the Fire are not doing right. Not only do I think that the Fire will likely run into a wall against Columbus, but they will be given the greatest contrast that exists for how they’ve been playing this season. And it’ll be coming from the best coach in MLS, Wilfried Nancy. I’m serious when I say I love the way this guy has his teams play soccer. His teams want the ball; they want to have the ball in their opponent’s third, and they will take as many shots as they can. That’s how you score goals, right? And I firmly believe that the only way to beat a Nancy-led team is to take on their offer to run with them in an offensive shoot-out.

Look, we’ve established that I’m not exactly a big fan of numbers. I failed AP Stats in high school and consistently use the phrase “I’ve never seen a number kick a football” in casual conversation about stats. But, that only comes from understanding what all these numbers are most useful for: manipulating data and exploiting it to fit my own viewpoints. So, like a real sportswriter, let’s do that.

So, let’s get into the Fire’s problems first. The main issue is that we cannot seem to get the ball to Hugo Cuypers. This man was brought in at a record fee for the club, but somehow we don’t know how to play with him out there. You can point to him needing to gel with teammates as a good reason for his slow start, and I’m not gonna call him out for that. He was a step behind some passes in Philly, but I figured we should give him time. The problem is that in the next game against Cincy, it became clear that maybe it’s not a “Hugo” problem and more of an “Everybody Else” problem. Over 177 minutes in his two appearances, Cuypers has gotten only a single touch in the box. That one touch was a header that went wide back in Philly. That’s one touch inside the most dangerous area of the pitch of a striker out of 80 touches across those two games. He has 7 touches inside the Fire’s box, including a goal line clearance against Cincy. I appreciate what he’s done, but WHAT IS HE DOING BACK THERE?!?!

Cuypers came to the Fire as a poacher. A fox in the box. Or, since I like to use hockey terms around here, a “Garbage Man.” It’s the guy who cleans up the crease, picks up the garbage rebounds, and puts them in the net. He moves around in the box, especially around the six-yard box, and works on getting loose balls in the net. Or, maybe he’s just in great position for a tap-in. It’s his vision to know where to be in the box that is dangerous. FBRef has 51 of his career goals logged (the Greek leagues are not tracked on the site), and they measure his average shot distance at about 13 yards, with the goal distance down to 12 yards. And if you’re a real stats freak, the median is even lower at 11 yards. All of those are well inside the box, even closer than the penalty shot. Then you look at what the Fire appear to be doing. Of all 14 of the Fire’s shots this season, the average distance has been a little under 20 yards. The median is 21 yards. Cuypers’ only shot this season, his only touch inside the box, was from just 6 yards out. The Fire are trying to force things through from double the distance our star DP9 signing is built for. He’s only scored two goals in his entire career from at least the Fire’s average shot distance. And you can argue that the overall team’s distance is obviously going to be higher than his distance, but at Gent last season, where Cuypers bagged 20 goals on 92 shots, the team’s average was at 17.6 yards (which is usually seen as the sweet-spot). And you look at the rest of MLS right now and the Fire (and many other much lower scoring teams) are on the super high end of shot distance.

When you look at what Frank Klopas, or whoever it is in charge of tactics around here, is doing, it feels like there’s a fundamental misunderstanding as to what everyone on this team is actually capable of. There are the aforementioned issues with Cuypers, but there’s also how he does get the ball when he’s in the final third. Our pass completion rate over 30 yards is incredibly low and many of those completed passes are out to the wings. Except, the reason why the completion rate is so low is the same reason why Cuypers has so few touches in the box: Cuypers is spending most of the game chasing these passes down and holding the ball up out near the wing. That means that our main scoring threat is out on the wing on the ball, leaving inside the box the same four dudes who finished last season with the worst aerial duel success rate on the team and the highest shot distance on the team out of all attacking players with that kind of shooting volume (remove Gaston from the equation cause we don’t know why he does that). But three of those four guys are literally best known for their ability to pass the ball into the box. Why are we putting Cuypers out there when he should be in the box waiting for Shaqiri, Guti, or Maren to send in the pass? And why is he, someone who’s best at working in a small area, being expected to chase down long passes like he’s some sorta super-fast dude? He’s not built for that chase and run to the house, he’s gonna have to pull off in order to keep possession. And then we’re back to him being in the corner, unable to get on the end of his own crosses.

It doesn’t end with just Cuypers, though. When the ball does make it to the right people out on the wings, there seems to be no intent to cross from these guys. Sure, Shaqiri is best known for his ability to cut in at the top of the box and shoot, and Guti is learning how to do that. But then what was the point of signing the guy in the middle who can finish the passes that these guys have been sending in to… Fabian Herbers? They’re great passers, we have a great finisher, why are we not using that? What is the point of breaking a club record when it seems like everyone’s refusing to pass to him in dangerous positions? Cause much of the time, when we see them cut in, it just leads to a turnover one way or the other. Either they pass the ball back out of the box, or they lose the ball. The biggest cluster of our opponents’ tackles in both games were right on that right wing, just near the elbow of the box. It led to two goals thanks to Guti, but one of them was just a penalty and the other was probably because the scouting report said “You don’t need to stop him from shooting because he won’t.” But that’s not anything sustainable, and it’s hard to see them trying to do anything else.

Finally, at this point, I’m gonna say something really controversial: I think defense is incredibly overrated. Especially at this level, the transitory level between a Tier 2 league and the actual elite leagues of the world, you just gotta score. Shut-down defense and parking the bus are good for teams that have already developed and proven their ability to score when needed. It’s good for when you’re playing against Real Madrid, Manchester City, or Bayern. It’s not worth it when you’re playing against a team from Ohio, and you have scored less than 40 goals over the past four seasons while still giving up around 50 in the past three. The point of winning in the majority of team sports is to score more than the other team first and foremost. The Fire have struggled at this task, so they haven’t been winning. That’s why they’re signing attackers. And yet, when you look at the focus they give on the pitch with their tactics it seems like they’re pushing harder and harder to reinforce a defense that’s actually gotten worse over the years.

We go back to the “on paper” argument. On paper, the combined attacking threat of Xherdan Shaqiri, Hugo Cuypers, Brian Gutiérrez, Maren Haile-Selassie, Chris Mueller, Georgios Koutsias, and even Kellyn Acosta just sounds so intimidating for opponents when you isolate what their individual games are. There are passing threats, a couple of speed threats, a couple of dribbling threats, and then one massive scoring threat at the tip of that spear. That should scare teams, they’re the ones that should be taking a step back. And on paper, that’s the best way to hide that our defense is a whole lot impressive nowadays, with an aging Rafa Czichos, an inconsistent Gastón Giménez, and Allan Arigoni looking more like he belongs in the attacking threat section than defensive workhorse. And you might say, “Well, if our defense isn’t good, then we need to support it.” Or, you might even bring up the old football adage of “Defense wins championships.” But people often forget the other, much more relevant saying “The 'Prevent Defense'  prevents you from winning." Sure, we can bunker and try to stem the bleeding, but at some point, you have to punch back. If you’re squishing six dudes into a low block inside the box and still giving up two goals a game, it’s time to give up and start trying to score more goals than the other team. What you’re doing isn’t trying to win; it’s trying to survive.

So what are the solutions we should take from this and bring to the game against Columbus and beyond that?

The Fire have to start treating Cuypers like a damn striker. Instead of sending him forward to pick out pop flies around the 35-yard line, give him some help in the form to work next to him (like starting Koutsias next to him) or send the quicker and more technically skilled wingers like Maren or Guti to collect those long balls. Let Cuypers get into the box and then GET HIM THE BALL IN THE BOX! He’s a striker, not just another midfielder who’ll come back to defend. Look at Christian Benteke, a striker if I’ve ever seen one. In his hat trick performance to start the season with DC United, he got 12 touches inside the box and only 4 in his own half. None of those 4 were even in his own defensive third. Just because Cuypers can defend doesn’t mean that he should. I thought we all figured that out when our Golden Boot machine’s production fell off a cliff after he started “tracking back on defense” and “rounding out his game”. YOU ARE A STRIKER! YOU STAND IN BOX AND SCORE GOAL! And those who are not helping the striker to do that need to think about whether or not they understand the rules of the game. You need goals to win.

Also, we need to tighten up and start playing through the middle a bit more. Playing wide isn’t a bad thing; it’s especially appreciated in the middle third. But in the attacking third, we’ve gotta start moving the balls towards goal a whole lot sooner than the touchline or even just at the elbow. Think of a boxer. Where everyone wants to throw the big cross, get a haymaker from the outside, the best technique to open those sort of opportunities up is staying compact and coming through the middle with a jab. We have Acosta in the middle now, we’re moving Shaqiri and Guti closer to the middle now, let them cut through the middle a bit more instead of hoping to use the speed that we don’t really have out wide. And even if we have Koutsias or Maren running down those long passes, Cuypers really does his best work finding those spots to make hidden runs to the back post. Let him get in position nearby, let the defense try to cover for the shot, and then play him through. Instead of cutting in on the dribble, cut in with a pass to a guy who knows how to shoot from that spot.

Lastly, stop faffing around and keep the ball in the final third. Our best players are in the attack. They can control the ball, they make less mistakes on the ball than our defenders. Instead of forcing Arigoni, Herbers, and Czichos to lead the team in touches, get the ball to guys like Guti and Shaqiri who can actually do something with it. It’s something that Columbus has done really well over the past season which is making sure that playmakers are able to make plays. Instead of passing out of dangerous situations, they make the situations even more dangerous with someone who can make that cutting pass.

And that’s really the point. Columbus won MLS Cup by doing the exact opposite of what the Fire are doing and the fact that the Fire cannot seem to realize this is a massive problem. It’s two matches into the season; I can be wrong. But it’s not like I’m saying “two games” are the trend. It’s been two seasons now. We have a striker who can finish things, but seem to be unwilling to give them the service that’s going to get us goals. Instead, we just use them in a completely different way that leads to a lot of empty possessions. Klopas’ tactics were a bit boring but effective back in 2012. But that’s because that team had Patrick Nyarko, Dominic Oduro, and Chis Rolfe back then. Guys who could chase down those passes, wingers who could make those cuts, a striker who could create his own shot near the top of the box. But the team has changed. The league has changed. And I’d hoped that Frank Klopas would, too.

Miscellaneous Notes

New Magic. I will be retro-fitting my article from last week for next week barring anything stupid happening. It’s about our new folk hero.

Finding Loopholes. I really liked Chris Armas’ idea of sending down the first team to the second team in order to play their Open Cup games. I hope Klopas does the same if it’s possible.

Midnight Football. The J-League is really fun and despite being a Cerezo Osaka fan, I’m starting to grow a soft spot for Tokyo Verdy because of how much they remind me of the Fire.

The Consequences of the Industrial Revolution. I’ve been rewatching the Avatar series after being disgusted by the Netflix remake and y’all, Korra is still so underrated. She needs a live-action remake with a full R-rating.

Song of the Week. I’m someone who needs constant music around me in all my life and that includes when I’m writing. And while when I’m writing a script, I have a specific vibe I try to bring to it with the music, but for columns I mostly defer back to “low-fi hip hop”, which is essentially just an entire genre that rips off the work of Nujabes. But, sometimes you get something really cool, which is this weirdly placed remix of Frank Ocean on the “Flowervillain” mixtape made out of mashing up “chill” versions of MF DOOM and Tyler the Creator. But “knockoff nikes” is one of the most amazing “chill rap” remixes I’ve ever heard.

I love you.

And I’ll see you next week.