And then there were nine: What to expect from the remainder of the Fire’s season
With the team’s Leagues Cup campaign now firmly in the rearview mirror, the team’s MLS regular season campaign is set to resume on August 24th when the team travels to The Bronx to play New York City FC, the first of nine games remaining on the team’s slate. With nine games to go, what should fans expect from the rest of the team’s season?
The Fire’s 25 points simultaneously put the team one spot removed from last place in the conference, above only the New England Revolution (who have two games in hand) and just three points back from the 9th and final postseason spot. A postseason push is within the team’s reach, even if it might not be in the team’s grasp.
Despite being just one win removed from a postseason spot, the team needs to be, at a minimum, three points better than Atlanta, who currently hold the ninth and final spot, while also having a better record than every team between the Fire and Atlanta.
Toronto, who have played one more game than the field, currently sit in eighth place with 30 points, possibly putting that spot within reach as well. Although the Fire are mathematically capable of making it to as high as second, realistically, it would take a series of miracles for the team – and calamities for other teams in the conference – for the Fire to finish in 7th place or above.
What will it take for the team to make it in?
Simply put, better results than they’ve had to date, but that’s a given for a team in 14th place in the conference. Results elsewhere have helped the team – both Atlanta and Toronto, who hold the wildcard spots, are currently on pace to finish with fewer than 40 points; last year, it took 43 points to make it, and some commentators have put the “safe” line for a postseason spot as high as 45. (Pre-season, we used 43 points as the “likely safe” line, though in 2021, D.C. United the Columbus Crew and finished with 47 points and 8th and 9th places.)
Using 40 points as the line, the math for the Fire becomes clear: They can win three games and go undefeated for the rest of the year, going 3W-6D-0L down the stretch, win four and draw at least three (sustaining a maximum of two losses for the rest of the year), or win at least five of their last nine.
For a team that already has 12 losses and just six wins so far this campaign, none of those options are easy, but the team’s remaining schedule helps: The team has four games against teams that are also currently on the outside of the postseason picture (D.C. United, CF Montréal and two games against Nashville SC), as well as a game against Toronto whose grip on the postseason has been fading after winning just two of their past 10 matches with seven losses in that span.
The remainder of the team’s schedule is split between home and away matches, with four matches on the road and five at home – though two of those games, September 7th against D.C. United, and September 28th against Toronto FC have been moved to SeatGeek Stadium due to conflicts with the Chicago Bears.
If the team takes care of business at home (notably, including a game against Inter Miami as well as a New York Red Bulls that is much better ) or gets wins against teams that haven’t exactly set the league on fire (something they’ve notably had challenges doing so far, losing to the San Jose Earthquakes and getting just one point from two meetings vs. the New England Revolution), they can push their way in.
A simple mathematical model puts the team’s chances of making it into the postseason at slightly more than a one-in-six chance – the roll of a die, an unlikely, though not unusual possibility. To get there, the Fire will need to string together results in a way that they haven’t to date, and they’ll also be facing off against a number of opponents who strengthened significantly over the summer, but with just one thing left to compete for, the team knows what they need to do. Whether they’ll do it or not is in their hands.
