Chicago Fire’s playoff picture with Decision Day looming

The Chicago Fire went into their last game against Toronto two weeks ago knowing that they would be in the postseason. Even though the team had punched their ticket, they didn’t know the destination – and still won’t until Saturday evening.

Every Eastern Conference team kicks off simultaneously at 5:00 PM Central on Saturday, meaning the Fire should know their first postseason opponent since 2017 within moments of the final whistle in Foxborough on Saturday.

Here’s all the playoff scenarios for the Fire ahead of the action on Decision Day.

What’s at stake on Decision Day

In the current MLS playoff format, the eighth and ninth seeds face each other in a single elimination wildcard game to be played on Wednesday, October 22nd.

The Fire only control their destiny as high as eighth place. A win against the Revs will guarantee that the Fire finish at least in eighth place, which would give the Fire a home playoff game.

With help from other results, the Fire can finish as high as sixth. If the Fire finish in sixth or seventh, they’ll proceed directly to a best-of-three series, with games kicking off next weekend. Equally important, that means that the Fire won’t be facing the prospect of playing three games in a week, with a home game sandwiched between two on the road the best case scenario in that situation.

The Fire finish in 6th if….

The Fire can find their way in sixth place if they get a win against the New England Revolution and Nashville loses to Inter Miami at home and Orlando loses or draws against Toronto.

In that scenario, the Fire would go on to face the third seed in the Eastern Conference. FC Cincinnati and Inter Miami are the only teams vying for the second and third seeds. Both Miami and Cincinnati are level with 62 points, but Cincinnati have one more win, giving them the first tie breaker. That will mean the Fire will face Inter Miami in the first round if FC Cincinnati win against CF Montréal.

How likely is that scenario? The Fire probably fancy their chances of winning against the Revs, even (especially?) on the road. Toronto lost their last game to LAFC, but that ended an MLS-record streak of eight games in a row with draws, including results against the Philadelphia Union, Columbus Crew (twice), Inter Miami and the Fire.

Orlando, meanwhile, have just one win in their last nine games in all competitions, although three of those - including two of the team’s four losses – came in the Leagues Cup. Their lone win of the stretch came against Nashville on September 20th.

Nashville are on a three game undefeated streak across all competitions, Orlando being their most recent loss, but that match came on short rest after their U.S. Open Cup semifinal win over the Union.

And Miami? They’re Inter Miami. Their only losses since the Leagues Cup final were a 0-3 decision to Charlotte on September 13th and their 5-3 loss to the Fire on September 30th. That comes despite the fact that the team was playing midweek games throughout the month after returning from the international break.

The Fire finish in 7th if….

Similar to sixth place, the Fire need help from teams above them to finish in seventh.

If the Fire win, they need a loss by Nashville or a loss or draw by Orlando. (Technically, they could catch up to Nashville if they draw against Inter Miami, but the Fire’s margin of victory would need to be eight or more goals.)

The Fire can also get into seventh place with a draw against the Revs, but they would also need an Orlando loss combined with a loss or draw by the Crew against the New York Red Bulls. That would put the Fire level with Orlando on 53 points, with the Fire holding the tiebreaker by virtue of having one more win.

It’s fairly likely that one of either Orlando or Nashville will drop points, giving the Fire an opening here.

If the Fire finish in 6th or 7th

By climbing out of the wildcard spots, the Fire ensure that their first opponent won’t be the Columbus Crew. Although the Fire beat the Crew at home last month, since that time, the team has been getting players back from injury and Darlington Nagbe, one of the most impactful midfielders in the history of the league, has announced his retirement after this season ends.

It’s been a disappointing regular season for the Crew, and they’ve left every competition they’ve been in, from the CONCACAF Champions Cup to the Leagues Cup, earlier than they would have hoped. Paradoxically, that may make the Crew a more dangerous postseason opponent: They still have a roster capable of competing for trophies and one of the best coaches for the league. Knowing that each opponent Nagbe faces could be his last could also galvanize the Crew to some results.

The Fire will, however, then have a first-round playoff date with either Inter Miami or FC Cincinnati – the only two possible opponents for the Fire in that scenario, regardless of whether they finish 6th or 7th in the East. Both teams are level on points but FC Cincinnati has the first tiebreaker. That means the team that emerges with the better result on Saturday will finish second and face the 7th place team, while the other will face the 6th place.

The Fire finish in 8th if….

There are the most roads to an eighth place finish for the Fire, and it is statistically the most likely place where the Fire will end up.

Regardless of results around them, if both the Fire and Crew lose, then the Fire will finish in 8th and the Crew 9th.

If both Nashville and Orlando win, the Fire finish in eighth with a win, or a draw combined with a loss or draw by Columbus.

Both of those scenarios leave the Fire’s situation unchanged from present: They will host the Columbus Crew on Wednesday.

There is, however, a possibility where the Fire would host Orlando: If Columbus wins against the Red Bulls and Orlando loses and the Fire draw, Orlando and the Fire will be level with 53 points, one behind the Crew, but the Fire will hold the tiebreaker, dropping Orlando from 7th down to 9th.

The Fire finish in 9th if….

The Crew win against the Red Bulls, Orlando picks up at least a draw, and the Fire lose or draw. In that scenario, the Crew would host the Fire on Wednesday (unless Columbus wins by a margin of 12 or more goals, in a league where the all-time record is an eight goal victory).

A Crew win combined losses by Orlando and the Fire would also push the Fire down to ninth place, but in this scenario, the Fire would travel to Orlando midweek.

The winner of the wildcard game, whether the Fire finish eighth or ninth, would go on to play the Philadelphia Union, with the first game in Chester, Pa. next weekend.

The bottom line

In reality, watching results come in simultaneously across four games makes determining the exact scenario a fool’s errand when the Fire do not control a path out of the wildcard spots.

The chances that a draw secures the team at least seventh place are slim and only a win ensures that the Fire will host at least one more game in front of home fans this year. Most importantly, it ensures that if that game is a midweek wildcard matchup, the Fire won’t have to travel to and from an opponent before going on the road again next weekend, giving the squad more time to rest and recover.

While it’s tempting to look at possible first-round matchups – whether the Fire would match up better against Miami than Cincinnati, whether the Union might be preferable to either – the reality is that the team will be focusing on what they can control.

That is a victory in Foxborough and the belief that they can compete against their next opponent, regardless of who they may be.