Different Skyline: Chicago Fire at FC Cincinnati Match 24 Preview

After earning a point at home, courtesy of a goalless draw, the Fire begin an incredibly difficult week on the road, starting with a game against Supporters Shield-leading FC Cincinnati on Wednesday.

With just two games left before the Leagues Cup pauses the MLS season for a month, the Fire are desperate for points against tough opposition as they try to climb their way into a spot where they might be in contention for th postseason.

Series History

All time: 3W-4D-5L
Last Match: March 2, 2024: Fire 1-2 FC Cincinnati at Soldier Field, Chicago, Ill.
Last Away Match: May 6, 2023: Fire 0-1 FC Cincinnati at TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, Oh.

Recent Form

FC Cincinnati

FC Cincinnati lost their most recent match to Charlotte FC at home, their fifth loss on the year, but surprisingly, their fourth at home. A week before that, the Garys slapped Inter Miami 6-1 at home, taking the lead of the Supporters Shield race on a points-per-game and points overall basis. In Cincinnati’s last 15 matches, they’ve lost three and won the rest – the team’s last draw was March 30th, ironically, against Charlotte.

Fire

The Fire played New York City FC to a 0-0 draw at Soldier Field in a match where neither team seemed particularly interested in advancing the proceedings. The game was the second in a row where the Fire were unable to score after their 1-0 loss a week earlier against San Jose, the team in last place in the league.

The Storyline

It wasn’t going to get any easier. With a sole point last Saturday, the Fire have sunk to 14th in the east and they now visit the 2023 Supporters Shield winners FC Cincinnati – a team that is now making a credible claim to a rare repeat of that trophy.

Whenever the Fire play FC Cincinnati, it’s hard not to muse how things have shifted for the two teams. Upon entering the league in 2019, FC Cincinnati became a laughingstock, with an utterly incoherent roster build and three seasons in a row at the bottom of the leagues standings, earning just 20 points in 2021, a season when the Fire finished just two places ahead of them in the conference standings, but almost double the point total.

Then, the Garys turned things around. They cleaned house late in the 2021 campaign and in the offseason, brought in Chris Albright as general manager and Pat Noonan as head coach. In 2022, Cincinnati were respectable, earning 49 points and their first-ever MLS playoff berth. In 2023, they were unstoppable, winning the Supporters Shield and making it to the Conference finals before bowing out to eventual MLS Cup champions Columbus.

The Fire, meanwhile, have stayed stubbornly pat during that time, and the Fire already have more losses this season (11) than Cincinnati have all of this season and last, combined (10).

Still, for whatever reason, the Fire have brought it every time they’ve faced FC Cincinnati, with the Garys winning the last two games by a single goal, and the teams ending in a three-all draw the match before that.

The Fire are also catching a break – their opponents, whose back line has been decimated by injuries throughout the season, will be without center back Miles Robinson, who was expected to be available prior to Olympic duty but who is suspended following a red card last Saturday. As a result, his team, which has consistently played with three center backs, is down to just two. It is, perhaps, a karmic reversal for the Fire, who had expected for star defender Matt Miazga to be suspended for the Fire’s home opener against Cincinnati in March, but whose suspension was lifted just days before the match.

Will that be enough to give the Fire an edge?

FC Cincinnati City Players to Watch

Lucho Acosta: The All Star forward has 11 goals and 17 assists on the campaign. In a league where few players have ever discord 20 assists in a season, the Argentine midfielder has time to handily beat the record. HIs eleven goals are six shy of his career record set last season, and his 17 assists are just two short of the 19 that he tallied in 2022, his first full year with the club.

Yuya Kubo: Yuya Kubo is one of the few holdovers from the earlier regime, but Kubo is having his best season in MLS since joining from Gent in Belgium (Hugo Cuypers former club) in 2020. His nine goals are second on the team, but Kubo brings more than just goal scoring prowess: Kubo can play as a forward, a midfielder, or a right wingback – that flexibility is going to be essential as FC Cincinnati juggles injuries and absences for this game. Keep an eye on where Kubo starts, since it’ll give a strong hint to how FC Cincinnati is approaching the game tacticall.

Fire Keys to Victory

• Test the back line: FC Cincinnati have played a three center back system for the past couple of seasons, as Pat Noonen’s team has moved from being a laughing stock to one of the most feared teams in the league. The thing is – they’re down to two, and the two they’ve got – Ian Murphy and Alvas Powell – were not the stars of the scene even before injuries. Either FC Cincinnati will be playing an unusual formation or they’ll be playing untested players (whether from their reserve side in MLS Next Pro or other places in the roster). See if they give a little, and FC Cincinnati’s defense – normally one of the top in the league – might just prove to be more pliable.
• The right tool for the right job: Against New York City, Hugo Cuypers was one of the Fire’s better players at hold up play and distribution from the midfield, and several times carried the ball far up the pitch. Great. But not what he’s paid for. When he’s doing that, he’s not in a position to score. Brian Gutiérrez needs to step up in the No. 10 role, and Cuypers needs to be allowed to do what he does best.

Panel Predictions

Alex Calabrese

Prediction: FC Cincinnati 1-0 Fire

Jiggly Carollo

Prediction: FC Cincinnati 3-0 Fire

Matt Shabelman

Duck it [sic].

Prediction: FC Cincinnati 1-4 Fire

Tim Hotze

The Fire have a greater-than-expected chance of winning this game. They’ve played well against FC Cincinnati, whose struggles have largely been at home this season. They’re facing a team with numerous absences. Still, the results gap between this team is massive.

Prediction: FC Cincinnati 3-1 Fire

Match Information and How to Watch

Date and Time: Wednesday, July 17, 2024, 6:30 PM CTLocation: TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, Oh.Forecast: 84’F expected at kickoff, winds at 8 mph, 75% cloud cover and 66% chance of precipitation with thunderstorms possibleTV: Apple TV – MLS Season Pass