End Cap: Chicago Fire vs Vancouver Whitecaps Matchday 29 Preview

Just shy of four days after the team lost 3-0 against the L.A. Galaxy in California, the Fire are back in action, this time at Soldier Field.

The home match – the last for the team until September 23, comes at a critical time for the Fire, with the team tenuously holding on to the ninth and final postseason spot.  After Wednesday’s game, the team has just three games remaining at Soldier Field, two of which come in a one-week span in early October.

The Fire need wins, and there’s simply no better place to get them than at home.

The game is also important to the Whitecaps, who currently sit at seventh place in the Western Conference with 34 points, in the midst of a very thick pack of teams chasing postseason spots, with just five points separating third place (and at least one home playoff series), from 10th place and missing the postseason.

Both teams would like nothing more than to close out August with three points and the ensuing boost to their postseason prospects.

Series History:

All time: 3W-3D-6L, 15 GF/17 GA, 12 pts out of 36
Last Match: July 23, 2022: Fire 3 – Vancouver 1 at BC Place, Vancouver, BC

Recent Form

Vancouver WhitecapsRecord: 9W-7D-8L (34 pts)

The Vancouver played their Cascadian rivals in Portland to a 3-2 win on Saturday.  Prior to that, the team lost 1-0 at home to San Jose in their first game following the Leagues Cup, where the team lost out in the round of 32 to Tigres UANL off of PKs. The team has played decently throughout the summer, roughly equalling wins and losses and - critically seldom settling for draws, with no level scores in league play since the middle of June.

The team has had a number of notable road victories this season, including Saturday’s win over the Timbers as well as a 3-2 victory over LAFC in late June.

Fire

Record: 8W-8D-9L (32 pts)

A first-minute yellow card to Gastón Giménez on Saturday would prove to be a harbinger of things to come, as he received his second about 25 minutes later, putting the Fire down a man for the majority of the game. The team were unable to overcome the numerical deficit and fell 3-0, in their first loss to a Western Conference team in league play this season. The result is the second match in a row where the Fire conceded three goals after falling 3-1 against Orlando a week prior.

The loss against the Galaxy puts the Fire at teams this year, the Fire are 4-0-1 league play against Western Conference teams this year, and the team is undefeated against Canadian teams on the season, going 2-1-0 so far.

The Storyline

The great American philosopher Yogi Berra once said “it gets late early out there,” and the quote is relevant for both teams. Both sides have postseason aspirations – Vancouver returning after missing out last year, the Fire hoping to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2017, but both teams have fine margins.

Vancouver’s win on Saturday propelled them into a postseason spot, while the Fire were helped by results elsewhere – losses from D.C. United and the New York Red Bulls – keeping them above the line, but neither team can take even a single match off for the remainder of the season. A loss for Vancouver could see them drop as far as ninth with Minnesota, the team behind them, holding a game in hand.

A loss for the Fire could see them drop as far as eleventh, just as the team embarks on a three game road trip that includes games against D.C. United and Montréal, two of the clubs that the jockeying for the same postseason spots as the Fire.

It isn’t yet “do or die” time for the Fire, but the team is approaching a crossroads: If they find a way to victory, the path to the postseason is significantly easier. Anything other than a win, however, puts the team below the points average that will likely see them make it to the playoffs, with a hard-charging Miami team determined to force its way into the postseason conversation along with the other teams just behind the Fire in the standings at the moment. Regardless of their position in the standings come Thursday morning, if the Fire settle for a draw or loss, the team is starting to dig itself into a hole of its own design.

Tactics and Projected Starting Lineups

Vancouver Whitecaps

Availability Report:
Out: Thomas Hasal, Luis Martins
Suspended: Andrés Cubas

When Whitecaps Head Coach Vanni Startini started coaching the squad (originally with an “interim” before his title), he wanted to roll out the team with three in the back and a midfield four. Last season, that shifted, and the team was likely to line up with a back four, primarily with a 4-4-2 diamond.

This season, early on, Sartini seemed to prefer a 4-3-2-1 or a 4-3-3, but since July, the team has reverted to a 3-1-4-2. The results, so far, have worked: the team’s expected goals (xG) and xGA have shot up significantly, and their defensive numbers have actually moved towards them being stingier.

Part of the reason is that, particularly when lining up in a 4-3-2-1, the team was quick on counters but lacked width in the attack. With quick movement when regaining the ball, the team had numbers in the middle, but if the initial play didn’t result in a shot or goal, the Whitecaps had few ideas other than blind crosses, which seldom if ever prove effective in professional soccer.

The 3-1-4-2 added an extra dimension of width in the attack without sacrificing much in the team’s ability to defend, and it has worked, with the team settling flipping the draws it was getting earlier in the season into wins.

Regardless of how they’ve lined up, the Whitecaps have turned middle-of-the-pack possession numbers into a lot of chances – the club is currently fourth in the league in shots per 90 minutes, and they’re tied for second in the league in xG according to Opta, a smidge behind Los Angeles FC for the lead in that statistic. Sartini’s club plays an exciting, fun-to-watch brand of football with lots of events, and of late, the events have tended to favor the Whitecaps, allowing the team to climb back into the playoff picture.

A couple lineup notes for Vancouver – DP midfielder Andrés Cubas is suspended for yellow card accumulation, #16 Sebastian Berhalter, son of Gregg, will likely get the start.  Ryan Gauld, who is traditionally a #10 but who has been playing as one of two forwards lately, started and went 89 minutes on Saturday so will likely be on the bench at kickoff with Sergio Córdova, a teammate of Fire defender Miguel Ángel Navarro on the Venezuelan national team, taking his place.

Chicago Fire

Availability Report:
Out: Javier Casas, Chris Mueller
Suspended: Gastón Giménez

The Fire play three matches in the course of a week and, as a result, squad rotation is an inevitability. Some of the choices, however, are being made for Chicago Fire Head Coach Frank Klopas due to the rate at which the team is accumulating suspensions.

In all three matches since the Leagues Cup, the Fire have missed a player due to suspension and this time it’s Gastón Giménez, with a one-match stay in Club Red after receiving his second yellow of the evening midway through the first frame on Saturday.

Next up could be Carlos Terán, currently sitting on four yellows. It could also potentially be Arnaud Souquet, also with four, but he has gone from being essentially a locked-in starter to an unused sub – his last outing was 16 minutes off the bench against Club América and his last start was a few days earlier against Club Puebla. We haven’t heard what has made the change, but it’s been notable.  Typically (though notably, not always) you have to play to get carded).

Jonathan Dean has played well in lieu of the Frenchman, but Souquet’s game adds more on the attack, functioning closer to a natural wingback than any other player on the Fire’s roster.  Alongside him, I’d expect Carlos Terán and Rafael Czichos to start, though with Mauricio Pineda rested due to his suspension on Saturday, he could end up in Terán’s spot especially considering the aforementioned yellows.

With Giménez out, the most likely starting duo is Federico Navarro and Ousmane Doumbia. Fabian Herbers is also a possibility, but if the squad is rotated, Herbers’s ability to play either as an offensive-minded player in the pivot or on the wing may make him a more valuable option off the bench.

With Shaqiri having played the vast majority of the match on Saturday, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get minutes off the bench, ceding the #10 role to Brian Gutiérrez.  Maren Haile-Selassie was Shaqiri’s replacement off the bench on Saturday, making him likely to return to his starting spot on the right wing. With Gutiérrez starting in the middle, Jairo Torres may well get the start to his left. Torres gave the Fire their closest thing to a goal on Saturday with a shot that bounced off the woodwork, in what would have been his first goal but for a few inches.

Like Shaqiri, Kei Kamara played the vast majority of the game on Saturday making Georgios Koutsias the likely starter up top

Fire Keys to Victory

• Light the spark: For whatever reason, since coming back from a nearly three week-long break following their departure from the Leagues Cup, the team have really lacked any kind of fire in them (pun probably intended). That might be somewhat excusable last Saturday, when the team was down to 10 men, but some teams have found a way to stay in games when down a man something the Fire, for the most part, seemed uninterested in doing. Someone needs to light the spark somehow. Getting an early goal, a goal from an unlikely source – anything, really –
• Bench press: With some typical starters – likely Shaqiri and Kamara – likely off the Starting XI due to schedule congestion, the Fire will have options that could change the tone and tenor of the game on the bench. The trick is to use them at the right time – before making a sub looks like a desperate act searching for last-minute heroics. Plan subs, communicate, use the bench. And
• Mind the net: The Whitecaps get off a lot of shots. Many of them don’t land on frame. (This was a previous ask made of the Fire here, and still remains a request of the squad, just more quietly as the team has started getting double digit shots on a regular basis.) The team should trust Chris Brady – who it is now fair to say is one of the league’s more underrated goalkeepers – to be a difference maker. Brady made a number of fantastic saves against the Galaxy as he faced down 19 shots, nine of which were on target on Saturday, and get ready to counter if the shot ends up on a defender’s foot or if it’s handled by Brady.

Panel Predictions

Alex Calabrese

I guess the good vibes summer is officially over now? Is it wrong to predict another win at this point? Because I think the Fire will win, regardless of how sneakily good the Ryan Raposo and Levonte Johnson-fuelled Whitecaps are.

Prediction: Fire 2-1 Vancouver

Jiggly Carollo

“So just to be safe, I suppose/I'll fight every reflection I see”

This is Vancouer. We surely can't lose to them, right? Well, it's late August. This is just what the Fire does. It is a home game, which does give some lee-way, but I think we'll have some nice rhyming going from the beginning of the season: Fire give up a lead late. The Chicago Fire aren't a team that plays soccer, they are a narrative conduit for pain. Embrace death by Ryan Gauld.

Prediction: Fire 2-3 Vancouver

Tim Hotze

Vancouver has one of the more successful attacks in MLS. The Fire may have the league’s most underrated goalkeeper in Chris Brady. A win for the Fire over a solid Vancouver side would be a salve in their final home game of the summer; a loss might send panic bells ringing. Somehow I think that none of that is going to turn out to be particularly relevant and we’ll be left with an unsatisfying midweek draw.

Prediction: Fire 1-1 Vancouver

Matt Shabelman

Prediction: Fire 3-2 Vancouver

Match Information and How to Watch

Date and Time: Wednesday, August 30, 7:30 PM CT
Location: Soldier Field, Chicago, IL
Forecast: 67’F expected at kick off, with 55% humidity, winds NNE at 14mph, 6% cloud cover and 0% chance of precipitation
TV: Apple TV - MLS Season Pass
Radio: WLS 890AM, wlsam.com (English), TUDN 1200 AM (Spanish)