The phrase “must-win” is a cliché but with Atlanta winless in their last three – since their 3-0 thrashing of the Fire – and with the Fire looking to bounce back from their worst home loss in seven years – tonight’s matchup is as close to a “must win” game as possible for both teams at this point in the season, not so much for the three points (MLS’s playoff format

Note: As the Fire just played Atlanta four weeks ago, this is an abbreviated article focused on Atlanta’s recent matches. For an overview on Atlanta’s tactics and roster build, check out our preview from that match.

Atlanta United

Overview

In the previous preview of Atlanta published at the end of March, I wrote that Atlanta United as a whole hasn’t really seemed greater than the sum of its parts in recent years, and that’s still true today.

They’re winless since last playing the Fire, and part of that is because the individual parts haven’t been contributing: Giorgios Giakoumakis was out between the match against the Fire and the team’s loss to FC Cincinnati last week due to a slight knee injury, and he frankly wasn’t a major factor playing just 30 minutes off the bench for Atlanta.

Thiago Almada, meanwhile, has had a dip going on most of the young season. In positive news for Atlanta, he scored second goal of the season – and first since March 9th – last week, giving his team a 1-0 advantage. In bad news, well, he was also directly involved in the next goal of the match – though this one was Cincinnati’s. Almada tried to take a short corner, and, well….

https://twitter.com/back_post_run/status/1782172710702891439

Not exactly great, and it comes a week after the team saw a two goal lead disappear at the hands of the Philadelphia Union, forcing the team to settle for a 2-2 draw.

Mental lapses, self-inflicted wounds…. It all seems painfully familiar to Fire fans.

Starting XI

One major issue for Atlanta has been the health of their back line. They started the last game without Stian Gergersen and Derrick Williams, Atlanta’s two-first choice center backs, and it looks like they’ll have to do the same thing again against the Fire. (Though unlike Real Salt Lake, Atlanta had backup center backs available in Noah Cobb and Luis Abram.)

Striker Jamal Thiaré and winger Xande Silva will likely both be out with injury as well; Silva is the only one who would likely be a starter, particularly if Giorgios Giakoumakis is back to being 90 minutes fit, which he likely will be after having returned with a 30 minute appearance off the bench last week.

Chicago Fire

Homecoming

Starting things off on a positive note: It’s almost certain that Andrew Gutman will have his first-ever home match in a Fire uniform on Saturday. Gutman was injured mere moments into his Fire first-team debut in the team’s season opener, and his recovery didn’t happen as quickly as initially hoped.

Gutman described returning from the injury as “almost like Christmas morning” in a midweek press conference.

It’s a welcome return for the Fire: Gutman provides both veteran leadership and an extra dimension on both sides of the ball that the Fire could desperately use. It’s also welcome for Gutman. He described it as “a moment that I’ll remember for the rest of my life. I remember going to Fire games growing up and always wanting to put on that red jersey.” Gutman said that friends and family, including his siblings, his girlfriend and her family will all be in attendance for his Soldier Field debut.

“Defending Is About Mentality”

For years, the Fire have had issues defending set pieces. The issues have spanned multiple coaches and lineups. Set pieces are key – depending on team and competition, between one-quarter and one-third of all goals can come from set pieces – which is why I thought that the Fire’s biggest offseason move might actually turn out to be hiring the team’s first ever dedicated setpieces coach in Ryan Needs.

And yet, last week Real Salt Lake’s third goal - the one that truly put the game out of reach – came when Chicho Arango, the league’s leading goalscorer, was left completely and utterly unmarked in the box off a corner.

I asked Fire Head Coach Frank Klopas about the team’s performance off set pieces this year and he said: “Defending is about mentality… and being really focused… You can play man to man, you can play zone, it really doesn’t matter…. Without the ball it’s about mentality and being really focused, and everybody making sure they do their jobs, and you know, we’re there to help out. So it’s not just about one guy, it’s a whole team effort and mentality in moments like that.”

To be clear, Klopas’s answer doesn’t offer a tactical solution but I sympathize with what he’s saying here: The team doesn’t practice leaving guys unmarked when defending corners, and to some extent, once the match starts, there’s not that much a coach can do to influence the game, particularly in moments like that. I can’t imagine that the team practices defending corners while ignoring the far post, so the question really becomes one of who wasn’t paying attention and then what can be done about it.

Maybe it’s something that can be practiced; maybe it’s ap layer who was asked to play last minute and whose had wasn’t in the game, or maybe it’s about personnel, but regardless, it’s continued to be a vexing issue and so far it’s been one that has been heavily resistant to fixes.

The Man After the Next Man Up

That’s more or less the extent of immediate positive news for the Fire. Four players went down with injuries between the time the team arrived at Soldier Field and the time the final whistle blew last week, starting with Brian Gutiérrez, injured in pregame warmups. Xherdan Shaqiri soon followed, leaving the team without a true #10 central attacking midfielder.

Federico Navarro injured his knee in the final minutes of the first half – Klopas told reporters on Wednesday that there was fortunately no structural damage – causing the gaffer to replace him with Gastón Giménez in the second frame. Giménez lasted just 15 minutes before he, too, was injured.

Klopas said that it seems that none of the injuries will keep any of the players out long-term, but only Brian Gutiérrez trained with the full team this week – and then only in the later part of the week. Xherdan Shaqiri was able to train on his own but had not rejoined the full squad.

Back to the Future: How Will The Fire Line Up Against Atlanta?

Given that, it’s likely that of those that went down last week, only Brian Gutiérrez will be available, and even then, likely as an option off the bench rather than a starter

That really cuts down on the Fire’s options -  they have no natural #10 without Guti or Shaq, and are short staffed on the wings, with Maren Haile-Selassie injured.

Necessity is the mother of invention, or, in this case, going back and dusting off an old classic: The 4-4-2.

That leaves the team with a familiar back line quartet, instead of playing with unfamiliar formations with an odd number of center backs, creating a recipe for confusion. Gutman, making his first home start in a Fire uniform, will start on the left, allowing Allan Arigoni to revert to his natural position on the right. That makes the team stronger at those positions  than it has been on both sides of the ball.

For center backs, Toby Salquist is out of concussion protocol and will likely get the nod next to Rafa Czichos. Frankly, neither have been world beaters and it still looks like Czichos may be in long-term decline, but Carlos Terán’s start last week did little to convince anyone that he’s clearly a better option.

In the midfield, Kellyn Acosta is a lock to start.  The preferred partner for him this season has been Fabian Herbers. Herbers will start, but I think it’s likely we’ll see him on the right, close to his natural ringer position, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mauricio Pineda making his third start of the season, this time in the midfield playing deeper and handling defensive duties. On the left, I’d give Chris Mueller the nod, reverting to his natural position.

For the two strikers, Hugo Cuypers is a lock and I’d put Georgios Koutsias over Tom Barlow, at least at the debut. Koutsias may not have been incredibly effective last game, but he did show both skill on the ball and determination at several points, including the work he did to win a corner right before the end of the first half. Nothing came of it, but if it had, the Fire would’ve gone into the tunnel down 3-1, and might – just might – have been able to use the goal to start mounting a comeback.

Regardless of the formation, the game plan against Atlanta should be a simple one: Keep their skilled players in check, play long balls over the top whenever possible. Make sure that when the team gets someone in the box, there’s options trailing or nearby so it isn’t just one one man (typically Hugo Cuypers) to occupy defenses and create a goal. Atlanta are playing without their first-choice center backs and at 39 years of age, Brad Guzan’s mobility isn’t what it used to be.

Even without the absences, it’ll be a tough match for the Fire against an opponent looking for a result, but it isn’t one that the team can’t win if they take care of business in their own end and speed up their offense on the other.