For the last time of 2024, the Fire face an opponent they haven’t yet faced this year (barring a run to the MLS Cup final, which I think we can all agree is highly unlikely) in Nashville SC.

The game is the sixth regular-season matchup between the two teams but the Fire are facing a very different squad than the one they saw on their last visit to Nashville in what turned out to be Ezra Hendrickson’s final match as head coach of the Fire.

Since that 3-0 victory over the Fire, Nashville have dropped off in form – they continued playing well for about a month but since then, have not looked like a playoff team, and as it stands today, they aren’t.

Nashville SC

First, the Fall

From the time Nashville entered the league in 2020, they played winning soccer but not particularly fun soccer under Head Coach Gary Smith. The team played against the ball, were quick on counters, which is more or less the “MLS starter pack” for raising a team’s ceiling.

In 2023, Nashville ended up 21st in possession, but that’s kind of misleading for how the team actually played: They were 28th in the 29 team league in progressive passes (passing the ball at least 10 meters towards the goal ending in the offensive side of the field), and dead last in progressive carries (carrying the ball forward at least 10 meters in the offensive half).

They did not want the ball. They wanted their opponents to have it, and to force a mistake in a good position which Nashville hoped to convert, which worked in part because of players like Hany Mukhtar, who won the MLS Golden Boot in 2022.

It was good enough to make the playoffs every year of the team’s existence and good enough to take them to the Leagues Cup final, losing out to Miami.

Then everything fell apart, really, before the 2023 Leagues Cup, when the team lost five of six games. After the Leagues Cup, they won just two of twelve, limping into the playoffs. Results didn’t pick up in 2024, and Smith was fired – oddly, after a win, his 100th in the position.

So what happened? First, Nashville truly benefited from Hany Mukhtar’s excellence, but outside of that, the team didn’t really succeed in signing high-end offensive talent. Nashville’s aggressive pressing triggers worked against unsuspecting opponents – see hat tricks against the Fire – but once teams figured out those triggers, there wasn’t a backup plan  and the game model didn’t really evolve under Smith.

Progress, But Precious Little Joy Under B.J. Callaghan

After a brief spell with Rumba Munthali as interim, Nashville named former interim U.S. Men’s National Team Head Coach B.J. Callaghan as the team’s second permanent coach on July 3rd.

Since then, the team lost eight games in a row across all competitions (Callaghan wasn’t in the dugout for the first of those losses) before finally winning a game last weekend, a 2-0 victory in Atlanta giving Nashville their first result – win or draw – since June 22nd.

Still, even if the results haven’t been there, Callaghan’s changes have started to take shape

https://twitter.com/benwright/status/1830344568035746297

Sam Surridge isn’t the best scorer on the team but still a high-end finisher. Callaghan is in a damned-if-you-do, damned-if-you-don’t position with Hany Mukhtar, who has moved from more of a free floating attacking winger to a more traditional No. 10 central playmaker. That improves the quality of play around him, and suits his skillset (and declining production) but also keeps the team’s most talented finisher farther away from scoring opportunities a lot of the time.

It’s hard to really bring in a new system midway through a season, so Callaghan may not be really implementing the system he wants to play, but so far, the changes have somehow made Nashville SC play better while getting worse results.

Nashville Lineup Prediction

The team has been playing out of a 4-2-3-1 since before Callaghan took over but the new head coach hasn’t changed the formation. Sam Surridge, the team’s leading scorer, is likely to start at striker, with Hany Mukhtar behind him as the No. 10 central attacking midfielder.

With Canadian men’s national team player Jacob Shaffelburg out with an injury, Alex Muyl and Teal Bunbury have been playing in the wings ahead of Anibal Godoy and Brian Anunga, taking the place that Dax McCarty occupied the last time these two teams met.

Nashville’s quartet of Walker Zimmerman, Shaq Moore, Daniel Lovitz and Jack Maher play ahead of GK Joe Willis; there’s skill in the backline and even though the team has let in 44 goals, the issues for Nashville have mostly been at the other end of the pitch.

Chicago Fire

The Fire are looking for their second win in a row after a 2-1 victory over the Red Bulls.. If trying to read the tea leaves for positive signs, the one time that happened this year was when the Fire beat the Galaxy at home and then Toronto on the road, though those two matches were two weeks apart thanks to the June international break. Last year, the team also had a win over the Red Bulls on a Saturday before a midweek win on a Wednesday, for whatever that is worth.

Well, so much for a healthy squad

Going into the game against the Red Bulls, the Fire Head Coach Frank Klopas had been expected to have almost his entire roster available for selection, with only Chase Gasper on the injured list.

But of course that isn’t how things worked out: Brian Gutiérrez reported, according to Klopas, a groin injury and after he came in early for evaluation, it was decided that he shouldn’t play. Andrew Gutman, likewise, reported tightness and it was decided to keep him out of the lineup.

Then Rafael Czichos was injured in warmups, bringing on Tobias Salquist to start in his place. And Carlos Terán was injured in the buildup that led to the Red Bulls goal in an apparent non-contact injury that seems like it may have affected a similar area to the one that’s bothered him all season.

It seems as if Gutiérrez is ready to go, and Terán and Czichos may be available as bench options at best.

Chicago Fire Starting XI and Formation Prediction

With the Fire’s center back optional looking curtailed, playing away against a team that has four players in the back, it wouldn’t surprise me if Klopas plays with a four man back line. The team also performed well with a two striker set up – that is what lead directly to Barlow’s opening goal – and I think it’s worth trying again.

With Koutsias now likely over the bulk of his jet lag, having played less than 20 minutes last Saturday and with the need for rotation considering the team is playing again this upcoming Saturday, I think he’s likely to start at least one match, if not both.

Unless Czichos and Terán are ready to start (unlikely), the team’s two available natural center backs are Wyatt Omsberg and Tobias Salquist. They played together against the Red Bulls after Terán’s injury, but haven’t spent a ton of time playing together this season.

Souquet and Pineda can both play as center backs, but when Souquet has been playing in that position, he’s been doing it as a back three. The team won’t want to rush Gutman back into service, so Lassiter should see the start on the left; that leaves Allan Arigoni or Souquet on the right. Klopas seems to trust Souquet’s defensive abilities more, so if going with a back four, I think he’ll be in the XI.

Pineda wasn’t in the lineup at all against the Red Bulls. He’s no longer on the injury report but had been injured; I just don’t see Klopas – who is typically conservative with lineup changes – starting a guy who wasn’t on the bench four days ago, though I wouldn’t be surprised if he sees minutes in the next two games.

In the midfield, if Gutiérrez is ready to start, he will. He has been playing well of late – he hasn’t been an absolute difference-maker, which is likely what this Fire team needs to start stringing together wins, but he’s been one of the best players for the team. It isn’t quite “the team goes as far as Guti takes them,” but it isn’t that far off, either. Fabian Herbers and Chris Mueller both started last Saturday but I don’t think they’re likely to start this one. Herbers was largely anonymous and although Mueller showed flashes of life, he isn’t the dynamic player that he was pre-injury.

Instead, I’d expect Maren Haile-Selassie and Gutiérrez to handle offensive duties in the midfield ahead of Gastón Giménez (who seems to be the default captain at this point) and Kellyn Acosta, though I would also expect Federico Navarro to get serious minutes this week.

The Fire have what it takes to get three points and their first win in Nashville. If they do, they are firmly in the conversation of teams that could make the postseason out of the Eastern Conference, but this team has a history of not getting points against teams below them in the standings, as Nashville technically are.

Will that change? We will soon see.