The Fire have done it: They’ve finally found a way to the bottom of the table after years spent mostly towards – but never actually at, at least this late in the season – the bottom. Yet the team is also just three points removed from the 9th and final postseason spot, just one fewer than they were a week prior.

To get back in the mix, the team needs to get results, regardless of opponent, but their opponent Saturday won’t make it easy: Seattle have lost just once at home all season, and tati includes an early-year stretch where the team didn’t look good before finding the traditional Seattle Sounders form we’ve come to expect from the team that’s two MLS Cups, four U.S. Open Cups, and the CONCACAF Champions League since entering the league in 2009.

Seattle

Overview

Sounders Head Coach Brian Schmetzer has become one of the longest-tenured head coaches in MLS, having been in charge of the Sounders since 2016. In that time, the Seattle native has kept the team playing more or less the same style as his team has won two MLS Cups and the CONCACAF Champions League.

The formula, more or less, is to provide a defensive and transition structure then let individual talent flourish, particularly in the final third. That’s worked largely because the Sounders have had, collectively, one of the most talented squads in the league throughout Schmetzer’s time at the helm.

Unlike, say, Columbus, the team’s model doesn’t really depend on intricate choreography to score goals or break down opponents. Instead, it’s about quick transition moments to jumpstart the attack, and then relying on individual talent and sheer numbers inside the six yard box to get goals.

When it works, though, teams often wind up giving Seattle a lot of the ball as they try to break down Seattle with quick counters and keep their attackers from having the ball in dangerous areas. Last year, Seattle was towards the top of the table in possession; this year, it’s middle of the pack. That’s partly because of results: Seattle have had the ball less than half the time during losses, and more than half when they’ve gotten a result. Like most teams in the league, they’re perfectly happy to use long balls and try to win the ball back quickly on counters, especially when trailing.

Seattle had been a lock in the playoffs, making the postseason every year in their time in MLS up through 2022, a season in which the team juggled the MLS regular season with an ultimately successful CONCACAF Champions League campaign. In 2023, they bounced back and found themselves second in the West, just three points shy of St. Louis, after a strong start to their season followed by a shaky middle third-or-so followed by a strong finish to end the year.

Stuck in Seattle?

Calling Schmetzer a “vibes coach” would be a misnomer – there is a structure, particularly in defense – but at the same time, his model is about putting good players in moments where they can be allowed to shine, and to some extent, that means keeping the locker room with you.

That’s why it’s especially concerning for Seattle that Raúl Ruidíaz, the team’s all-time leading scorer and their leading scorer on the year, and Nouhouh, a defender who has been a core part of the squad dating back to 2017, got into an argument (possibly with Schmetzer) after Saturday’s match against FC Dallas that was heated enough for the coach to decide to voluntarily suspend both players.

It’s one thing for tempers to boil over when the team hasn’t been getting results, but the team only has two losses since the start of May and the team won on Saturday; a come-from-behind victory that saw the team go from a two goal deficit to scoring a winning goal late in second-half stoppage time.

According to reports, the crux of the argument from Ruidíaz’s part was a lack of playing time in recent matches: He’s started the last three on the bench, and has had just 60 minutes of playing time across two half-hour cameos in that span. There were rumors that the team could be preparing to part ways with the 33-year-old designated player, whose contract expires at the end of the season.

Did he ask for a move and was told he was too important to the team’s 2024 plans? Was the background of this all frustration that he wasn’t called up to play with Perú, even as the Blanquirroja have struggled offensively? Who knows, but it isn’t a great sign for a team that had just started to look like they had figured out how to grind out results.

You do have to wonder, however, if the squad may be a little too settled. Schmetzer has been working with largely the same core of players for most of nine seasons as head coach. Other than Nico Lodeiro, who the team allowed to depart in the offseason for Orlando, the team has kept every significant player from 2023 in the squad.

Two players – goalkeeper Stefan Frei and midfielder Cristian Roldán – actually predate Schmitz’s tenure as head coach. Most of the rest of the core has been with the squad for a long time: Jordan Morris joined in 2016; Nouhou in 2017; Cristian’s brother Álex Roldan joined in 2018; Ruidíaz has been with the squad since 2018, and so on.

You do have to wonder – has Schmetzer been playing with the same core group for too long, and is that one of the factors holding the team back? The team has been playing too well for calls for a rebuild to make any sense, but successful teams evolve season after season, before things get stale.

Still, the fact is, it’s still largely the same Seattle team that the Fire have faced, right down to Jordan Morris still scoring key goals for the team, as he did last week against Dallas.

https://twitter.com/MLS/status/1805684890152677435

Jordan Morris second-half brace? That’s exactly how the team killed the Fire in the team’s opening game of the 2020 campaign, the first with Raphaël Wicky as head coach and Georg Heitz as sporting director. Four and a half years on, you can’t say there aren’t some advantages to consistency.

Who Will Be in the Starting XI for Seattle?

Brian Schmetzer has been lining his team up either in a 4-4-2, with Morris and Ruidíaz as the two strikers, or a 4-2-3-1, with Ruidíaz up top and Morris playing on the left wing behind him.

Well: With Ruidíaz suspended for the match, they won’t be doing that. Instead, expect the team to play a 4-2-3-1 with Jordan Morris up top. That create somewhat of a wrinkle for Schmetzer: The team was already thin on the wing, and the Young Designated Player the Sounders spent a reported $7 million acquiring to bolster that position, Pedro de la Vega, has been injured most of the year and has just three appearances and 103 minutes – none since May 18th.

Since Ruidíaz was relieved of starting duties, Léo Chú has been starting in the role Morris vacated on the left wing. The now-24-year-old Brazilian hasn’t been particularly productive, with one goal and two assists to his credit on the year, but then again, wasn’t supposed to be the number one option at his position anyways. On the right, Daniel Musovski (1G, 1A) will likely get his fourth start. In between them, Albert Rusnák, who leads the team in assists with nine, will be pulling the strings.

One big question mark over the Seattle squad would be who’d replace Nico Lodeiro in the No. 10 role, with many saying that Rusnák hadn’t been convincing in his time there. Well: so far, he’s silenced the critics, and he’s more goal-dangerous than his single tally on the year suggests.

Behind him, Obed Vargas has been a near-lock at starter, and he’ll likely be paired with João Paulo.

In the back line, Jackson Ragen and Yeimar should once again get the nod. They, frankly, haven’t been stellar throughout the year, allowing changes that became goals, but their performance has picked up notably in the past couple of months compared to where it was early in the year. Cristian Roldán should get the start on the right. Starting in place of the suspended Nouhou?

Fire Head Coach Frank Klopas’s bet is Reed Baker-Whiting: “Nouhou was taken out and they brought in Baker-Whiting,” he said when asked about the potential of playing against a Seattle team without two key players, “I think they are a deep team. For us, look, obviously there’s different dynamics if Nouhou is there and Whiting, just player characteristics and how they may build out of the back, but we are prepared for both scenarios.”

For an insider perspective into Seattle, make sure to check out our opposition report, featuring Dave Clark from Sounder at Heart.

Chicago Fire

What went wrong in Orlando?

The team outplayed and outshot Orlando. They won the xG battle, but I’m not sure how much you count that, because, ultimately, Orlando went up 3-0 and after that, the hosts knew they were in the driver’s seat and could afford to sit back and absorb pressure. The Fire responded, and Hugo Cuypoers was close to getting an equalizer in the 11th minute, but his shot wasn’t on target. If it had been, and the Fire had tied it up, it really could have been a different game.

Still, with the team letting in two more goals, although  the Fire deserve credit for getting two goals back, it never really felt like the outcome was in jeopardy after the team was down 3-0.

That was, first and foremost, the biggest issue with the team’s performance. No matter how good of a team you are, you just can’t dig yourself that deep of a hole and expect to climb out of it more than once in a blue moon.

But how did the team get there?

The first goal was obviously the most important. On that play, Arnaud Souquet, who surprisingly got the nod even with Rafael Czichos once again available, coughed up the ball which made its way to Orlando’s Dagur Dan Þórhallsson. He laid off a perfectly-weighted pass to Facundo Torres at the edge of the box. Rather than immediately closing down the space, Jonathan Dean hesitated and Torres took advantage. His shot needed to be perfect, but, you know what? It was, and he beat Chris Brady.

The two Fire players named above aren’t typically starters on the back line. Dean isn’t even normally a left back, but with the team’s two natural players in that position – Chase Gasper and Andrew Gutman – still injured, they had little choice but to play him out of position. He’s played decently, but, frankly, any time in MLS that you have a third-choice player at a given position facing off against one of the marquee names in the league, there’s going to be a big talent advantage, and that’s what Facundo Torres exploited.

The second goal, well, this is hardly the week for me to remind USMNT fans of the importance of playing smart. Allan Arigoni rugby tackled Iván Angulo in the box. An obvious penalty, and he is very lucky that he wasn’t carded.

On the third goal, Dean was again beat in the box – you see the pattern, and I don’t need to get into more details. Orlando did their homework, they realized that a player a season removed from the USL Championship who had been pressed into long-term starting duties on his weak side would be a place for the team to exploit, and exploit it Orlando did.

Torres’s second goal happened after he had enough room – and nearly enough time – in the Fire’s box to build a house. I’m not sure who was supposed to be marking him – it looks like it was likely Fabian Herbers – but that’s just because of how thoroughly Torres slipped his mark. There isn’t an excuse for leaving players of his talent unmarked in the box, but, well, it happened.

The other thing worth mentioning: The Fire’s recent results came against teams that whether due to roster build or injury, were largely down to one focal point on the attack. That let one of the Fire’s center backs – typically Carlos Terán – mark them out of the game. Against Orlando, with multiple dangerous players, the system didn’t work as well. Duncan McGuire, the team’s leading scorer, didn’t get a shot off, let alone one on target against the Fire, but Facundo Torres and Iván Angulo obviously found more than enough time and space.

Seattle would have been a more multi-focal team like Orlando, but taking Ruidíaz out of hte picture does simplify things for the Fire.

Did the Fire switch back to the 4-2-3-1?

With the team down 3-0 at half, Frank Klopas took off Allan Arigoni, who was responsible for the penalty that resulted in Orlando’s second goal, in favor of Chris Mueller. The result was a tactical switch: The team more or less started playing a four man back line, with Souquet sliding over to the right back position.

Taking off a defender in favor of an attacker was a gutsy move for Frank Klopas, who some fans have accused of being too conservative in his game management. It was also the right move in this case: The Fire had cut into Orlando’s lead in just eight minutes, and after Torres scored his second, Hugo Cuypers responded, giving the Fire just over 20 minutes plus stoppage time minutes to try to make up a two goal deficit.

I don’t, however, think the team really reverted to the 4-2-3-1 that had been the team’s hallmark from 2022 up until the past few weeks of the season. Instead, it looked to my eye a lot more like a 4-3-3, with Cuypers playing centrally alongside Haile-Selassie and Mueller, ahead of Herbers, Brian Gutiérrez and Kellyn Acosta in the midfield.

Was the shift made because it provided the Fire with a better base than the 4-2-3-1? Or was it simply a recognition of the fact that with the pieces at hand, playing a double pivot inherently made less sense?

I’m not sure, but either way, Brian Gutiérrez, despite not figuring in the boxscore, had one heck of a game, creating chances and getting shots off with his team down. It’s exactly the kind of step up in maturity and responsibility the team needs, and exactly what they expected when they gave him a new deal that pays him multiples of his previous wages.

Who will play against Seattle? How will the team line up?

The Fire haven’t had, depending on how you count it, four players that would have been at the top of the depth chart at their positions at the start of the season in recent weeks, including three on the back line alone, including the injured Andrew Gutman, Tobias Salquist and Rafael Czichos, who wasn’t available two weeks ago and didn’t play last week after receiving his green card. That’s in addition to Xherdan Shaqiri, who hasn’t been particularly effective this year, but is still the team’s most expensive player and who, in an ideal situation, would have been a key contributor.

On top of that, Federico Navarro, who had just started to see more frequent playing time, is injured.

Don’t expect to see any of them play against Seattle or, likely, in the week after that. Asked about Navarro specifically, Frank Klopas said midweek that although he hopes that he’ll start taking place in training sessions with the team “some point next week,” but that he won’t be available for this game but might be “available to help the team versus Philly but then probably more realistic, San Jose or even past that.”

I’m not sure why Rafael Czichos didn’t start last week, and didn’t have the chance to ask, but I believe he’s still one of the team’s best options at center back and will get the nod here.

I also think that, despite switching to playing with four in the back when down against Orlando, the team will revert to playing three center backs in a 5-3-2, or 3-5-2, or whatever you want to call it. In defense, it’s a back five, with Dean and Arigoni playing as fullbacks alongside the three center backs. In the attack, it’s a back three, and sometimes even a back two, one of the center backs becoming the late attacker for second balls. In possession, Brian Gutiérrez is the lone attacking midfielder, and Dean and Arigoni play more like true wingers.

There’s a chance that Klopas abandons the formation – he often likes mirroring the other team’s numbers, particularly on the road, and Seattle play with a back four, but a back five sets off a Terán-vs-Morris battle where you’d have to think Klopas would fancy his chances.

Will that be enough for the team to get their first-ever win in Seattle, completing the a set of victories in Cascadia over three seasons? We’ll soon find out.