FC Cincinnati

Overview

2023 Results: 20W-9D-5L, 69 pts, 1st in Eastern Conference, 57 GF, 39 GA (+18 GD)

Key Offseason Signings:  Corey Baird, Pavel Bucha, Luca Orellano, Miles Robinson

FC Cincinnati entered MLS and promptly won themselves a Wooden Spoon with the league’s worst record. And then they stayed bad. Again and again. That started to turn around after the 2021 when the team hired Chris Albright away from the Philadelphia Union’s front office, who in turn brought in Pat Noonan as head coach. In 2022, the team was decent, in 2023, the team was excellent, winning the Supporter’s Shield with the league’s best record.

On the pitch, a key part of Cincinnati’s turnaround was striker Brandon Vazquez, who the team acquired for $150,000 in GAM from Nashville, and who is now gone, having departed for Monterrey (Cincy’s next opponent in the CONCACAF Champions Cup) for a reported $7.5 million transfer fee. Not bad work by Cincinnati’s front office, but then, you have to replace that production, and to do so, the team brought in Corey Baird. There is no way that isn’t a step down in quality, and now both he and striker partner Aaron Boupendza will have to see if they can develop the same chemistry that Boupendza had with Vazquez. I somewhat doubt it will happen; then again, before arriving in Cincinnati, Vazquez looked like a player who would split time between loan spells in lower-division clubs and riding the bench in MLS.

Álvaro Barreal, who had established himself as one of the best wingbacks in the league looked set to be the next player to make a move to Europe, but made it clear he wanted out, and looks set to join Cruzeiro in Brazil, where the transfer window remains open. Foreseeing the move, Luca Orellano was brought in as a replacement, though his career has been as more of an out-and-out attacking winger without the same defensive responsibilities.

FC Cincinnati also lost Yerson Mosquera, who had become one of the league’s best center backs, and replaced him with Miles Robinson, who, along with the Fire’s Kellyn Acosta, was one of the biggest names to move as a free agent in the offseason. Robinson is good, but it’s not hard to argue that Mosquera (now a frequent starter for Villareal in La Liga) was a cut above. The team also lost defensive midfielder Junior Moreno, but seems to have upgraded in that spot, bringing in Pavel Bucha to play next to Obinna Nwobodo.

And as strong as the team was last season, they were fallible: They won many of their games by a single goal, and needed a late winner to get on the scoresheet and secure three points the last time they faced the Fire (in Cincinnati), and GK Roman Celentano is a competent, though not high-level shot stopper in this league.

On the whole, it’s hard to feel that this year’s squad is an improvement over last year’s, though at the same time, Chris Albright’s hit rate with signings has been insane and it could be that the new faces will bring more to the team than it seems like they should on paper.

Tactics & Formation

Pat Noonan has been pragmatic in his tactical approach with FC Cincinnati: They don’t dogmatically follow any particular style of play, and seem content to shift tactical approaches based on opponents’ perceived weaknesses.

Overall, though, they typically like to press fairly high (just not St. Louis-or-Red-Bulls-high), though they may also sit in a mid-block. As many teams in this league, they are content to play without the ball, hoping to be quick in transition after winning the ball back and scoring.

Regardless of what the game plan is, FC Cincinnati lines up in what’s nominally a 3-4-1-2, but the formation may be best understood as a 3-2-2-1-2: Three center backs – likely Miles Robinson, Matt Miazga and Ian Murphy – anchor the back line behind two wingbacks, likely Yuya Kubo and new arrival Orellano.

In defense, the wingbacks join the center backs to form a five-strong back line, while in attack they push further forward.  Barreal excelled in the role last season –  he was second on the team in goal contributions with 14, including nine assists, also second on the team – and though Orellano looks like a  decent signing, whether or not he’ll hit at that level is an open question.

Orellano will likely play opposite Yuya Kubo, who was competent last year, but simply didn’t have the offensive talent that Barreal did, adding just three assists and no goals in 2023.

Ahead of the wingbacks are two midfielders, playing essentially in a double pivot, with similar roles to the Fire’s defensive midfield, though with (nominally) five players, not four behind them, they’re more likely to get involved in the attack than what we see with the Fire.

The attack is orchestrated by a central attacking midfielder, typically Lucho Acosta, the league’s reigning MVP, who is more than capable of playing the ball to the two strikers – Aaron Boupendza and Corey Baird are the best options Cincinnati has –  or taking shots himself: Acosta led the team with 17 goals last season, and added 14 assists. He was the only player on the team to reach double digit goals and one of just two to make double digit assists last year, though that’s in part because Boupendza was limited to 10 matches and six starts, adding five goals in 609 minutes.

Having played midweek and facing Monterrey, one of Liga MX’s most dynamic squads, in the middle of the week after meeting the Fire, some squad rotation is likely to occur. The issue is that with as much roster turnover as FC Cincinnati has had, they’ve had limited time to develop chemistry, something that Noonan will want as much of as possible. A smart bet is that he’ll field a top lineup at kickoff with a plan to rotate players off in the second half, and hope that the game is firmly in their hands by then.

Players to Watch

Lucho Acosta: Reigning MLS MVP. Led his team in goals, assists and (in case the math isn’t obvious here) goal contributions en route to the team winning the Supporter’s Shield. The game is dangerous when the ball is at his feet. On the other hand, Acosta was involved in a full 54% of FC Cincinnati’s goals last season. Contain him, and FCC is a much easier opponent to contain

Lucha Orellano: Brought in as a replacement for Álvaro Barreal, and pressed into service in the role faster than most observers would have thought. Can the winger-cum-wingback contribute to the attack without over committing and leaving gaps in defensive coverage for the Fire –he’ll likely be facing off against the shifty Maren Haile-Selassie –  to exploit?

Chicago Fire

Saturday was supposed to be Andrew Gutman’s homecoming, the first time that the former Fire academy product would be wearing a first-team Fire jersey in front of a home crowd. That is tragically postponed, with Gutman going down with an apparent non-contact injury moments into the Fire’s game against Philadelphia. According to reports, the injury is not as severe as many initially feared, and Gutman will likely miss just a handful of games, but oh boy could the team use his skills in this match.

Playing in his stead will likely be Chase Gasper, who was pressed into service last week and who showed flashes of ability at moments, and clear rust in others. He was once considered an above-average MLS prospect before his career took an unfortunate turn; if he is able to get things back on track and buff out the rust spots, he could prove himself to be a capable replacement while Gutman recovers. Klopas might also choose to start Jonathan Dean, though it isn’t his preferred side.

Arigoni looked strong in his Fire debut, as did Kellyn Acosta off the bench. The Fire could certainly use Acosta in a starting role, though the question becomes who he’d replace: Both players who started in the double pivot, Gastón Giménez and Fabian Herbers, had strong games, with Giménez advancing the ball well and Herbers adding a goal and an assist.

Likely, as tough as it is to tell a player who just had a stellar outing that they will be starting on the bench, Herbers will be the odd man out. As strong as his game was against the Union, his former team, Herbers seems best suited to be an option off the bench, where he can play either as a winger, in the double pivot, or, in a “break glass in case” situation, return to his original position at center forward. I suspect Herbers, now the longest-tenured player on the squad, will understand, and understand that the best way to change that is to have another strong performance, even if it comes off the bench.

Hugo Cuypers looked good in his debut and even if he didn’t make it onto the boxscore, he was involved: Rewatch Brian Gutiérrez’s goal against the Union that opened scoring, and you’ll see several players on the Philadelphia back line tracking Cuypers’s run, with one player notably glancing at him while the ball remained at Guti’s feet. He created space for the attack, and his teammates were able to exploit it.

That’s good, but he –  and the 25,000 expected at Soldier Field on Saturday -  would love nothing more than for him to bag his first goal in front of the home crowd.

FC Cincinnati remain one of the top sides in a loaded Eastern Conference, but they’ve also undergone a lot of change - undoubtedly, some of the roster turnover will turn out to be an upgrade, but the fact is, FC Cincinnati had players who were absolute class, especially at their cap hits.

If they can pressure the team’s new-and-likely-not-improved defense into making mistakes, if Maren Haile-Selassie (or whoever) can catch Orellano off guard and if they can simply get shots on goal, the Fire can find success against the visitors.