Hard Mode Off: Chicago Fire’s Difficult Schedule Now In Rear View

The Chicago Fire’s loss to conference-topping San Diego FC on Saturday was the team’s fourth loss in their past five games in MLS play. Midweek, the team played 120 minutes but were booted out of the U.S. Open Cup by Minnesota United in a 3-1 decision, with the Fire down a man for a majority of the match. For Fire fans, eager to see their team return to the postseason after an absence stretching back to 2017, it’s beginning to feel all too familiar: Early hope gets shattered as the team fades down the stretch.

The 2025 edition of the Chicago Fire, however, feels different, if you’re looking for reasons for hope, both the team’s performances as well as their schedule going forward give real reasons for optimism.

Here’s where the Fire stand as they prepare to enter the final third or the MLS regular season.

Fire’s losses have been concentrated at the top of the table

The team’s four recent losses – five including the Open Cup loss – come against teams at the top of the standings: San Diego FC currently tops MLS’s Western Conference, with Minnesota right behind them. The team’s other recent losses have come to the Philadelphia Union (currently first in the East and atop the Supporters Shield Standings) and Nashville (third in the East).

None of those games were blowouts: The team’s only multi-goal loss of the stretch came against Nashville on June 14th, in a match where the Fire had the higher expected goals (xG) – as they did against San Diego, peppering Pablo Sisniega’s net with 18 shots.

It’s something that Fire Head Coach Gregg Berhalter has noted. After the team’s lone win in the past month, a 3-2 victory over Charlotte on June 28th, he said “when I looked at our home losses, I happened to check that, and it comes against the top team in the conference, the second team in the conference, and the third team in the conference. So we weren't ready to beat the top teams yet, and we still may be, but it doesn't mean that we're not making progress.”

On June 14th, facing Nashville , a team that had embarrassed the Fire with a 7-2 scoreline, the Fire lost 2-0 but edged Nashville on both shots (14 to 11) and shots on target (seven to three), finishing the match with the higher xG. Berhalter’s squad also arguably played well enough against both FC Cincinnati on July 5th (a 2-1 loss) and the Philadelphia Union on June 25th (a 1-0 loss) where at least one point – if not two or more – out of those games wouldn’t have seemed unfair to Chicago.

With every team except Inter Miami and Los Angeles FC having played at least 20 matches, it’s past the point in the year where looking at standings can give some indication of team quality.

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All eight of the Chicago Fire’s losses have come to teams that are currently in the postseason. Only two have come to teams that wouldn’t have home field advantage in the first round of the playoffs: The April 5th loss to the New York Red Bulls in Harrison, and May 25th against New York City FC at Yankee Stadium. Notably, the Fire played the majority of that game down a man, and the 3-1 scoreline hides the fact that the Fire were playing with a lead for nearly half the match.

The hardest part is (mostly) over

In fact, the Fire’s entire first half of the schedule was frontloaded, something touched on back when the schedule was released: In a league where 60% of the teams make the postseason, 15 out of the Fire’s first 21 - just over 71% matches have been against teams currently in postseason spots. Naturally, that means that the Fire’s schedule the rest of the way out is (at least on paper) easier: Only 7 of the team’s final 13 matches, or 53%, are against teams currently in postseason spots.

Even factoring in upcoming matches against LAFC and Inter Miami, who are lower in the standings than they would be on a points per game basis after time spent playing in the Club World Cup, the road looking ahead looks easier than the road behind for the Fire: The team’s weighted points per game (PPG) average of the opponents in the team’s first 21 matches is 1.47, or about that of a lower-seeded playoff (proper) team.

Looking forward, the Fire’s opponents average out to 1.37 PPG – a 47 point pace, more likely to be one of the last play-in teams than in the playoffs proper. While that may not seem drastic, the number is inflated by the upcoming game against Inter Miami, who the Fire previously played to a 0-0 draw and who boast a 2.0 PPG average so far. Also included in that total is a game against Minnesota United, who the Fire were playing closely before going down a man in their Open Cup match last week.

Three upcoming matches a great opportunity – and key test

As it stands now, the Fire have three matches before a two week break. They face Atlanta United on Wednesday followed by CF Montréal on Saturday, both on the road, before hosting the New York Red Bulls on July 26th.

The Fire have played all three of those teams this season: The Fire managed a 1-1 draw against Montréal at the end of March before losing 2-1 to the Red Bulls a week later. In May, they beat Atlanta 2-1 for their first home win of the season.

Both Atlanta and Montréal are currently out of the playoffs: Atlanta Is currently in 12th, with 19 points and a -15 goal differential, while Montréal is tied for last in the league with 15 points. The Red Bulls are currently in eighth place, two points ahead of the Fire, while Chicago has a game in hand. That makes the match a true “six pointer” for both teams – an opportunity to get three points for your team while denying a team close to you in the standings the chance at the same.

The road that returns the Fire to the postseason is clearly marked: Beat the teams that you should, on paper, and you’re there. Both of this week’s games are against teams the Fire should beat on paper. One win would see the Fire exceed their points total for all of 2024. Two wins would certainly push them back into a postseason spot.

A win against the Red Bulls a week later? That would likely push the Fire into the thick of the playoff spots proper, days after the transfer window opens, potentially allowing the Fire to bolster the squad before their next match against Los Angeles FC in August.

Of course, the games aren’t played on paper – and the Fire have to translate the form they’ve shown into actual results, starting Wednesday night in Atlanta.