Herdman in Hogstown: Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC Match 18 Preview

The Fire are back in action following a week off and the team will hope to pick up right where they left off, with a win against the L.A. Galaxy ending the first half of the Fire’s season.

The team starts a three game road swing in Toronto, a team that’s been reinvigorated under Head Coach John Herdman after a disappointing 2023 that saw the team win the Wooden Spoon for the league’s worst record.

The Fire are still searching for their first road win of the season, and there’s little margin for error if the team is going to make any noise in the second half of the season: They currently sit in 14th place in the East, just two points ahead of the New England Revolution, who have two games in hand, in the conference’s basement and need roughly two times the points out of the second half of the season as they got in the first if they’re going to make it to the postseason – a distant, though not unfathomable possibility, but one that becomes less realistic each time the Fire drop points.

Can the Fire kick the second half of the year off on the right foot and get a result north of the border?

Series History

All time: 11W-12D-14LLast Match: July 15, 2023: Fire 1-0 Toronto at Soldier Field, Chicago, Ill.Last Away Match: May 31, 2023 : Toronto 0-0 Fire at BMO Field, Toronto, ON.

Recent Form

Toronto FC

Toronto are winless in their last three matches, having drawn D.C. United 2-2 in their most recent game on June 1st in a match that D.C. dominated on the pitch but spent the vast majority trailing. Two late red cards for Toronto help gave D.C. the space they needed to secure an equalizer deep in second-half stoppage time. Before that, they drew Philadelphia 0-0 on the road. In their most recent home match on May 25th, they lost 4-3 to FC Cincinnati.

Fire

Just like that, the Fire are on an undefeated streak, having beat the L.A. Galaxy 2-1 in their most recent match on June 1, after playing Orlando City to a 1-1 draw a few days earlier. In their most recent road match, they played D.C. United to a 1-1 draw.

The Storyline

The Fire’s second half of the season begins with the team in worse shape than it’s ever been after 17 matches: Despite the win against the Galaxy two weeks ago, the team is sitting on 15 points, two fewer than they’ve ever had at that point in the season, including the two years they won the Wooden Spoon for worst record in the league.

Toronto, the current holders of the Wooden Spoon, got out of the league’s basement not so much by turning over their roster, but instead, by bringing in a new coach in John Herdman, who’d previously had successful tenures leading the Canadian men’s (and previously to that, women’s) teams but had never coached at the club level.

Herdman built a reputation for steering the Canadian men’s team to their first World Cup since 1986, but he did it based on getting absolute buy-in from the squad, rather than through any great tactical acumen (think Ted Lasso, but with a custom made sword rather than a handwritten sign that says “BELIEVE”).

Toronto has long been one of the highest spenders in the league, and splashed heavily to bring in Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi (suspended for this match) in 2022. Both of the Italian stars had failed to impress in MLS, however, and reports came out that showed that the duo were not engaged on or off the pitch, and uninterested in meeting expectations (like not vaping on the team plane).

So far, Herdman has managed to do something that no one including former Fire and U.S. Men’s National Team Coach Bob Bradley had managed to do, and get buy-in from the Italian duo alongside the rest of the squad, and as a result, Toronto have had a much more successful 2024 campaign than most observers thought they would. The team currently sits sixth in the East, comfortably in a playoff spot.

The Fire, meanwhile look ready to cut ties with their big-name acquisition from 2022 in Xherdan Shaqiri, with both sides apparently looking for the Swiss star to move on. Since Shaqiri was allowed to depart early for the Swiss National Team camp, the Fire are undefeated, with two draws and a win to their credit. With Shaqiri in the lineup, Brian Gutiérrez was left in the lurch: He might be the #10, he might start on the wing, he might be on the bench.

Now, he’s being given the keys to the car, and sometimes that’s what makes the difference. Gutiérrez’s new deal pays him like a leader and a difference-maker; can he step into that role?

Alongside a new formation that adds a center back and essentially allows Carlos Terán to man-mark an opposing star player out of the game, the team have been playing with better poise, but more importantly, a sense of purpose.

The margins are thin - the team needs something like 10 wins or 9 wins and a handful of draws out of 17 matches to break the second-longest postseason drought in league history, after Toronto’s that dated from their entry in the league in 2007 and ended in 2015, before culminating in an MLS Cup appearance in 2016 and a victory in 2017.

Can the Fire launch themselves on such an upward trajectory? It’s “one match at a time,” but every match from here on out matters for the big picture as well.

Toronto Players to Watch

Lorenzo Insigne: When the now-33-year-old Insigne joined Toronto midway through the 2022 campaign, he (very publicly) became the best-paid player in the history of the league (since displaced by Lionel Messi), but failed to make a significant impact on the pitch, scoring just four goals and adding five assists in his first full season in 2023. In 2024, however, he’s been locked in, scoring three goals and four assists in just 520 minutes after missing significant time with a hamstring injury.

Prince Owusu: Owusu, a former German youth international who joined Toronto in the 2023 summer transfer window from the 2. Bundesliga, has been effective in his first full season in MLS, scoring six goals in 896 minutes (14 games, 10 starts) this season.

Fire Keys to Victory

• • Good vibes only: Toronto FC’s improved run of form has come with a roster that isn’t significantly different from the one that came in last place in the league last season; instead, they’ve come in with better team cohesion and purpose under a new head coach. With Xherdan Shaqiri in Europe, Brian Gutiérrez can be assured that he’ll be orchestrating the attack, and if the team can get on board, they have the talent to compete and get a result against Toronto.
  • Get on the board first: This sounds obvious, but it’s better to have a lead. Scoring has been an issue for the Fire in 2024, but being the first team to tally is important: Of Toronto’s seven wins so far this season, all but one have come when the team scored first (four have come when former Fire netminder Sean Johnson was able to keep a clean sheet). The Fire have the talent on offense to score. Do it first, and then dictate the terms of the play.

Panel Predictions

Alex Calabrese

The Fire might have just hit form at the wrong moment. A run of three successive passable performances was immediately followed by a two-week international break, and it's hard to imagine momentum has sustained itself. Free-scoring Toronto probably take this one.

Prediction: Toronto 2-0 Fire

Jiggly Carollo

"I wish I could buy back/The woman you stole" My position isn't changed after the Galaxy game. I feel like this fanbase still gives too much benefit to this club when we've seen time and time again that they are not worth the effort. You look at the overall performances, you look at where the goals came from in that match, and it takes way too much mental gymnastics to say "Yeah, they can win a game like that again." Sure, Bernardeschi is suspended, but Toronto is still a much better team than however the Fire have been playing this season. And on the road? That's just not something the Fire are gonna get done.

Prediction: Toronto 2-0 Fire

Tim Hotze

Both teams have talent on paper; so far, Toronto has been better at harnessing it into results. The Fire look like they’ve gained a tenuous amount of traction, just as Toronto FC’s carriage looks like it may be sprouting some pumpkin-like qualities. Maybe the two meet in the middle?

Prediction: Toronto 1-1 Fire

Matt Shabelman

Prediction: Toronto 3-1 Fire

Match Information and How to Watch

Date and Time: Saturday, June 15, 2024, 6:30 PM CTLocation: BMO Field, Toronto, Ont.Forecast: 65’F expected at kickoff, winds at 6 mph, 10% cloud cover and a 0% chance of precipitationTV: Apple TV – Free