If you can’t make it here: Chicago Fire vs New York City FC Match 23 Preview

Heading into PayPal Park in San Jose last Sunday, the Fire had a choice: Knowing that a win would put them level on points (though behind on tiebreakers) with teams in postseason spots, they could make things easy for the remaining dozen games of their season, or they could make things hard.

They chose hard. A 1-0 loss - the first time the Fire have failed to score on the road since their 0-0 draw against the New York Red Bulls on April 13th. The Fire remain in 13th place, just one point ahead of D.C. United for the last spot of the conference, needing points.

Getting a win against New York City FC – currently in 5th place – at home won’t be easy, but it will be significantly easier than beating either of their next two opponents – Supporters  Shield-leading FC Cincinnati or 2nd overall in the league Inter Miami – on the road.

If the Fire want to show that they can make something of their season, they need to win games at home. Period, and regardless of the opponent. If the team wants to go return to the MLS season after the Leagues Cup with more than the thinnest of hopes for the season, they need points in the upcoming week – and they won’t come any easier than against the Pigeons at home.

Series History

All time: 3W-6D-11LLast Match: October 21, 2023: New York City 1-0 Fire at Citi Field, Queens, NYLast Home Match: March 4, 2023: Fire 1-1 New York City at Soldier Field, Chicago, Ill.

Recent Form

New York City

In their most recent match, New York City lost 2-1 in Austin. The move put them back in the losing column after two victories – both at home – over Orlando City and CF Montréal. Before that, the Pigeons had been on a three game losing streak following a five game winning streak. After a rocky start, it’s been that kind of season for NYCFC: Streaky, but more good than bad.

Fire

Just three points out of a being level with teams in the postseason last week, the Fire played a team at the bottom of the standings, and, as happened when they faced a then-hapless New England Revolution that seemed hellbent on a Wooden Spoons speedrun to the league’s worst record, the Fire failed to get a win. This time, they fell 1-0 in a game where the team had precious little bark and no discernible bite.

The Storyline

Do you believe in second chances? After two years as an assistant at New York City FC, Nick Cushing was named Head Coach for the 2023 season. The team failed to make the playoffs that year for the first time since their inaugural 2015 season, and many expected Cushing to be replaced. Instead, City Football Group stood by their man. Things started worse in 2024, and with four losses in their first five games of the campaign, many believed that Cushing would be the first coach to be relieved in the season.

Then something changed. Cushing simplified the tactics – unlike their local rival Red Bulls, who play the same style of football that their German and Austrian clubs do in Europe, there is no real expectation that Cushing would try to mimic Pep Guardiola’s tactics in MLS – and results followed. Starting with a 2-0 win over the then-bottom-feeding New England Revolution, the Pigeons won eight of their next nine matches, pushing them comfortably into a playoff spot. The team’s since spun its wheels, winning two of the six matches since, but most assume that the team will comfortably return to the playoffs this year.

In the meantime, the Fire’s results have been more stable: Under the past four head coaches – including Veljko Paunović’s four years in charge of the team, before current ownership had control – the Fire have stayed within a very narrow band, hovering just above a point per game; typically far short of the playoff line.

The Fire are below the line, looking in. They’re close, but they face top-tier teams for their upcoming matches, a week after the team failed to get a result against a bottom-of-table opponent.

Well: At this stage, if the Fire were going to make it into the postseason in a conventional way, they would have. From here on out, if they’re to fare better than the teams have over recent seasons, they’ll need to do it the hard way, by beating teams significantly ahead of them in the standings.

That means getting results away, but it also means the team needs to start getting results available to them at home.

To turn a song on its head: If they can’t do it here, can they do it anywhere?

New York City Players to Watch

Santi Rodríguez: The Young Designated Player originally joined the Pigeons in the middle of the 2021 campaign on loan from Uruguayan side Torque and was, by the end of last season, considered something of a disappointment, tallying just 12 in his 84 appearances through the end of 2023, and he went from tallying 13 assists in 2022 to just eight in 2023. This year, he’s locked in - his eight goals are just one shy of what he managed in the past two years combined and with seven assists, eclipsing his MLS goal contribution record of 17 in a season seems entirely doable.

Alonso Martínez: Martínez joined NYCFC from sister club Lommel SK in Belgium late in the 2023 season and didn’t really have time to make an impact. In 2024, the Costa Rican international struggled for minutes early in the season, even as the team struggled around him, but since he’s broken through, he’s been on a tear, scoring eight goals and adding two assists in just 15 matches (eight starts) and 729 minutes.

Fire Keys to Victory

• Be dynamic: The Fire struggled to unsettle San Jose’s defense last week. The attack was too static, the passes far too predictable. By the time the last ball came, you could see it coming – and more to the point, so could the Quakes back line, who were ready for it. That meant the team’s run of finding the back of the net at least once in a match ended. They need to be more fluid in the attack if they’re going to cause problems for a team that, frankly, is better than the Earthquakes.
• Make it easy: Since we’re talking about scoring, well, here’s some advice: Score first, make the home crowd happy, they’ll be at your back all match and the game gets much, much simpler. Get a lead, go for more, or batten down the hatches. Either way, it’s a lot easier than having to stage a comeback. Try it, Fire. You just might find you like it.

Panel Predictions

Alex Calabrese

Prediction: Fire 1-1 New York City

Jiggly Carollo

Prediction: Fire 1-1 New York City

Tim Hotze

The Fire’s record when I don’t predict wins has got to be better than the record when I do.

Prediction: Fire 1-2 New York City

Matt Shabelman

Prediction: Fire 2-1 New York City

Match Information and How to Watch

Date and Time: Sunday, July 13, 2024, 7:30 PM CTLocation: Soldier Field, Chicago, Ill.Forecast: 84’F expected at kickoff, winds at 9 mph, 41% cloud cover and 24% chance of precipitationTV: Apple TV – Free