Looking for Change: Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution Match 11 Preview

The Fire host the Revolution looking for their first win of the three-game homestand that concludes with the match this Saturday at Soldier Field.

There’s reason for hope - the Revolution have won just one match this season, and their only other point came against the Fire in a game where torrential rain had a significant influence on the match, greatly limiting the Fire’s chances at offense.

Series History

All time: 34W-22D-32LLast Match: March 23, 2024: New England 1-1 Fire at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Mass.Last Home Match: September 23, 2023: Fire 2-2 Fire at Soldier Field, Chicago, Ill.

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New England

When we last checked in on the Revolution, they were still active in CONCACAF Champions Cup play, having beaten Costa Rican side L.D. Alajuelense and awaiting a tie with Club América. Things didn’t go well, with the Revs bombing out of the final by a score of 9-2 on aggregate. Both of the Revs' goals in that matchup came after América had already put up eight goals.

Revs fans told themselves that the loss was a good thing – finally, the team could just be focused on MLS, and maybe find some of the form that they had through the middle of last season, when the team was on pace to compete for the Supporters Shield.

It hasn’t worked out. They managed to get a win 1-0 on April 6th against Charlotte at home, but that and the draw against Chicago are the only points the Revs have managed this season.

Last week, they faced Inter Miami, and managed to get a 1-0 lead in the first minute, but that was their last shot of the half and the only shot on target they’d manage all night, eventually losing 4-1 to Messi & co.

Fire

Last week, Chris Brady managed to keep a clean sheet against the offensively gifted Atlanta United team that beat the Fire 3-0 at the end of March, earning him Team of the Week honors on the night his goalkeeping coach Zach Thornton was inducted to the Ring of Fire.

Brady’s efforts only secured a single point, however, as the Fire failed to score for the second consecutive match. The team has now been shutout three games in a row and has scored just one goal in open play since facing the Revs on March 23, coming as part of a 2-1 win against the Houston Dynamo on April 6th.

The Storyline

MLS has one of the heaviest homefield advantages of any professional soccer league on the planet, and there’s an adage that you haven’t really lost in MLS until you’ve lost at home. But given that wins are three points and draws are just one, it’s really the number of wins you get at home that counts.

League-wide, taking everyone from the Supporter’s Shield winner for best regular season record to the Wooden Spoon winner for the worst, teams in MLS win about half their home games, on average, and just over a quarter of their away games, while managing to get draws in about a quarter of both their home and away games.

That’s what’s made this three-game homestand so critical for the Fire, but really, the need for wins is more than just about points in the standings (in a league where 62% of teams make the postseason, even the Revs, with just one win and one draw in their first 10 games, aren’t really out of consideration – last year Sporting Kansas City had no wins and just three draws in their first 10 matches before going on a tear and pushing their way into the postseason): It’s about the confidence it gives members of the team, and it’s about giving the Fire’s long-suffering fanbase something positive to cheer for.

That, more than anything else, is what makes this game a must-win: Not only have the Fire not been winning, but the lack of scoring makes it hard for even the fans who want to believe to have something to hang their hopes onto.

Yes – the Fire had an incredibly banged-up squad last week, and managed to hold on for a point despite the injuries, including one to Toby Salquist that forced the team to play short a player through the dying minutes. Yes – the schedule has been hard, with the Fire having faced only one team so far this season that failed to make the postseason last year (Montréal).

But none of that matters if fans going to the game feel that the attitude “maybe they won’t lose” a lot more viscerally than “I look forward to seeing us win.”

In my last preview for New England, just five games into the season, I wrote that a victory could shift the narrative for the Fire, and show that this year truly as different. That didn’t happen, as we near the one-third mark of the season, the team, so far, has done precious little to suggest that the narrative of this season will be different than last year’s… or the year before’s, or the year before that.

If the team is going to change that – they want to, but if they’re going to – then that starts with wins, at home, that, along with some favorable results, could potentially put the Fire into a postseason spot and maybe start to shift the narrative around the team.

New England Players to Watch

Carles Gil

In the preview six weeks ago, I said “Carles Gil is the heartbeat of the Revs attack.” That’s still true, it’s just that he’s gone from being one of the top #10’s to the league to… something less than that this year. Is it age? Is it a lack of a structure that serves home well under Or is it just a run of poor form? Still, the most dangerous animal is a wounded animal, and Gil is more than capable of pulling out moments of magic.

Tomás Chancalay

Chancalay has been pressed into service as the sole striker in the Rev’s attack, and even if the Argentine hasn’t been incredibly effective for the Rev’s, he’s still likely the most dangerous goal threat, alongside Carles Gil.

Fire Keys to Victory

• Speed up the attack: One of the Fire’s issues has been that they like playing direct – few passes per attacking sequence – but they do it slowly - a bit slower than the league average, but far behind most direct teams. That gives opposing defenses time to set before any real chance happens. The Fire don’t need to become the fastest team in the league, but the quicker they can move up the field, the more likely they are to get the ball to the right players quickly, which brings us to…
• Get Cuypers involved: Cuypers has actually been involved – he had 44 touches last match, just four fewer than Fabian Herbers and more than Chris Mueller or Georgios Koutsias. The issue is, his involvement has been more in the midfield, doing doing holdup play - which honestly he did admirably, all things considered – but in the attack. HIs last goal was against the Revs. For years, their goaltending was the class of the league, but this season it’s been more than just a little fallible. This is the perfect opportunity for Cuypers to get back in the boxscore.

Panel Predictions

Alex Calabrese

Simply put the Fire has to win this game. Anything short of that would throw the entire season in jeopardy, particularly noteworthy considering that next Wednesday will mark the one year anniversary of Ezra Hendrickson's sacking. New England is not an in-form team right now, and Klopas' team should be able to get a win.

Prediction: Fire 1-0 New England

Jiggly Carollo

"No one in the world ever gets what they want and that is beautiful/Everybody dies frustrated and sad and that is beautiful" Once again, we're getting points that are going to not feel good. I think this is a win for the Fire and three points are three points. But we're going to continue to see frustrating play out of everyone and the two goals will either be penalties or some sort of accident. We are going to go into the game from the outside seeing every sign that the Fire will dominate, only to watch them cower back from kickoff like they're going up against Stoichkov's Barcelona. This is the formula. It's boring, it's tiring, and it's here to stay.

Prediction: Fire 2-0 New England

Christian Hirschboeck

We're due.

Prediction: Fire 2-1 New England

Tim Hotze

This is not only a “must win” game, but a highly winnable one. Let’s see if the offense can wake up and if Brady can continue his excellent form.

Prediction: Fire 3-0 New England

Matt Shabelman

We are so back.

Prediction: Fire 3-0 New England

Match Information and How to Watch

Date and Time: Saturday, May 4, 2024, 7:30 PM CTLocation: Soldier Field, Chicago, Ill.Forecast: 65°F expected at kickoff, winds at 8 mph, 78% cloud cover, and a 44% chance of precipitation.TV: Apple TV – Free