On Repeat: Chicago Fire at Orlando City Match 19 Preview

For the second year in a row, the Fire head to Orlando early in the second half of the season after winning their previous two games.

Last year, the team had won its previous two games on the road going into the match, the first time in a decade the team had won back-to-back matches away from home, but they couldn’t make it into a three game streak, falling 3-1 to Orlando in their only blemish in a six game stretch that saw the team earn five wins.

This year, a win against Orlando will make it two-in-a-row on the road. The team has some things going for it that they didn’t last season: They’ll be facing an Orlando side that played midweek, and one that unlike last year, has struggled to get results.

Series History

All time: 7W-7D-7LLast Match: May 29, 2024: Fire 1-1 Orlando at Soldier Field, Chicago, Ill.Last Away Match: July 1, 2023: Orlando 3-1 Fire at Exploria (Now Inter&Co) Stadium, Orlando, Fl.

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Orlando City SC

When the Fire last faced Orlando, their most recent win was against the San Jose Earthquakes on May 18, and their only home win of the season was against Austin FC on March 23. Both of those things are still true. The team has since lost in Harrison, NJ to the Red Bulls and at home to Los Angeles FC. On Wednesday, they managed a 2-2 draw in Charlotte after going up a man in the 38th minute thanks to a straight red to Charlotte’s Scott Arfield. That draw, alongside the against the Fire, are the teams only two points in their last five matches. The team hasn’t been getting results anywhere, but have been especially miserable at home, going 1W-3D-5L.

Fire

The Fire had their biggest win of the season last Saturday, beating a depleted Toronto FC side 4-1. The Fire’s first multi-goal win of the season came despite the fact that the team was missing three normal starters on the back line. With the victory – the team’s first on the road in 2024 – they’re now undefeated in their last four matches, going 2W-2D-0L in that stretch, the longest undefeated streak for the Fire since their five game stretch without a loss early in the 2023 season.

The Storyline

Do we know how this story ends?

Last year, the Fire traveled to Orlando having won two in a row. They lost, to an Orlando team that seemed to have every bounce go its way, but then went on to win their next three matches, giving Fire faithful hope that the team might finally make the playoffs

The summer bump was all the Fire would really get, though, and although they hovered near the playoff line, they weren’t ultimately able to get over the hump, extending the team’s postseason drought to six seasons, the second longest in league history. Once again, as temperatures heat up, the Fire have started getting results, and are now on a four game unbeaten streak that’s seen the team move from draws to wins.

Is this going to be another flash-in-the-pan, “get-your-hopes-up-just-to-kill-them” cycle?

There’s plenty of reasons to think it might be: Despite the recent results, the team is averaging just 1.0 points per game (PPG) – less than the team managed in 2022 and 2023. The Fire’s most recent win came against a Toronto team that was missing numerous starters, from the team captain to the starting GK to the team’s best two-way player.

My rough estimate says that as things stand, the Fire have about a one-in-six chance of making the postseason – if it were a roll of a die, it’d have to come up a six for the team to make it in.

Yet: Things that have a one-in-six shot happen all the time! If you rolled a die and it came up a six,  you wouldn’t say “that’s the craziest thing I’ve seen today.” Results elsewhere have also helped the Fire: The team is just two points out of a playoff spot, and teams at the lower end of the Eastern Conference standings have been putting up historically bad numbers.

There’s no set number of points to make the playoffs, but I’d previously said that 44 points should see the Fire into the postseason. As it stands today, Atlanta hold on to the ninth and final postseason spot and are on pace for just under 38 points, meaning, as things stand, the Fire could potentially make it in with six points – two wins – fewer than I’d said.

More than the math, the team’s recent run of results coincide with a tactical shift, that’s seen the team move away form a 4-2-3-1 formation that tries to build through possession to a high press, counterattacking 5-3-2.

The result has been more defensive cohesiveness, and the Fire seem to have finally found a way to consistently take opposing team’s most talented attacker out of the game, by tasking Carlos Terán with ensuring that that player’s matchday is a miserable one. Adding a second striker, and making Brian Gutiérrez the team’s offensive playmaker, has also helped the team get production, including from Hugo Cuypers, who is performing at the level you’d expect from the team-record signing.

If the Fire are going to make something out of their season, the match against Orlando presents an ideal test: The teams have identical records, with the Fire ahead thanks only to having a goal differential that’s one goal better than the host’s. The Fire may only have one win on the road, but Orlando, shockingly, have only one win at home. The team’s historical series is exactly even, at 7W-7D-7L.

It feels like three points should be within reach for the Fire – but will it be within their grasp?

Get a result, show that you can get points from away matches when the points should be within your grasp.

Orlando Players to Watch

Luis Muriel: Muriel joined Orlando City from Atalanta in Serie A ahead of the 2024 season and was expected to replace Duncan McGuire, who was on the trade block but, due to a paperwork error, ended up staying in Orlando. In his time in Atalanta, the 32-year-old Colombian striker scored an average of once every 105 minutes on the pitch, second in the league after Cristiano Ronaldo in the same time period. Since joining MLS, he’s been something of a disappointment, with just two goals in 1146 minutes to date (that’s far less than a goal every 105 minutes, for those of you keeping score at home). Orlandos’ struggles have mirrored Muriel’s. Chances are, if Muriel turns it around, Orlando’s fortunes will follow, and vice versa.

Facundo Torres: Facundo Torres joined Orlando ahead of the 2022 season as a team-record signing. The now-23-year-old designated player was, for a time, chasing the Golden Boot last year, and ended up with 14 goals and 4 assists in just 2377 minutes. In just over half as many minutes this season, he’s chipped in three goals and two assists. The occasional Uruguayan international (looking to climb the team’s depth chart) has had, like Muriel, a disappointing campaign and his performance mirrors his team’s. His performance has ticked up, and he scored in the 81’ of their most recent match. If he can turn things around, results for his squad should follow.

Fire Keys to Victory

• Numbers in the box: One tangible difference in the way the team’s played: They’ve been getting runners into the box. Asked about it midweek, Frank Kloaps said “we always need at least three in the box, that’s for sure. So we have done a much better job at putting numbers, getting numbers forward, and I think that has helped us with the opportunities that we’ve gotten… I think that’s been a big focus from the beginning of the season, is to get more numbers into the box so that we have more opportunities on the end of those balls that come in through crosses or cutbacks. That’s important. We’ve done a much better job with that. It’s shown in our ability now to finish chances.” They need to keep it up, and frankly, I don’t think it’d kill the team to get another runner in on a lot of the plays.

• More goals from more places: The Fire are now 4W-1D-0L in games where they’ve scored more than one goal (as someone quipped on Twitter, they remain winless in games where they haven’t scored). In the last game, the team had four different goal scorers, including first-of-the-season tallies from Allan Arigoni (his first in MLS) and Mauricio Pineda. Tying in to the first point, Pineda’s goal happens directly because he’s willing to charge in and get involved offensively after the ball had already been played into the box. Showing a willingness to second balls actually makes the first ball easier to win, because defenses learn that they’ve got to be ready to defend second chances.

Panel Predictions

Alex Calabrese

In the middle of last year’s early summer renaissance the Fire went to Orlando and lost. Despite the current run, I can see that happening again.

Prediction: Orlando 2-1 Fire

Jiggly Carollo

"She lies and says she's in love with him. Can't find a better man. She dreams in color, she dreams in red. Can't find a better man." So, that's another win, this time against a team that thoroughly deserved a loss. But the Fire still haven't changed anything. However, Orlando is probably the worst team at home that MLS has ever seen. They've got, what, 6 points out of 9 games at home? That's something fundamentally broken inside a team if they specifically can't win at home for that long. So I still don't think the Fire have changed at all, I still think the Fire are just on their regularly scheduled "Summer Bump", but if they got past Toronto, there's no reason that it won't happen again against Orlando. Plus, Cuypers is finally getting his looks.

Prediction: Orlando 1-2 Fire

Christian Hirschboeck

Prediction: Orlando 1-1 Fire

Tim Hotze

These may be famous last words, but this seems like the kind of game the Fire can win. They didn’t know it at the time, but if they’d won the match in Orlando and kept the same results for the rest of the year, they would’ve made the postseason. If they’re going to turn things around, this is the time and place to do it.

Prediction: Orlando 1-2 Fire

Matt Shabelman

firreeeeePrediction: Orlando 0-2 Fire

Match Information and How to Watch

Date and Time: Saturday, June 22, 2024, 6:30 PM CTLocation: Inter&Co Stadium, Orlando, Fl.Forecast: 87’F expected at kickoff, winds at 9 mph, 77% cloud cover and a 77% chance of precipitation (thunderstorms likely)TV: Apple TV – MLS Season Pass