Only Way Is Up: Chicago Fire at Seattle Sounders Match 20 Preview

Until their victory over the Vancouver Whitecaps in 2022, Fire had never won in Cascadia. In 2023, the team notched its first-ever victory in Portland over the Timbers. With Saturday’s test in Seattle against the Sounders, they have a chance to complete a set of away victories over all three Cascadian clubs in the league.

Last year, the team’s victory over the Timbers ended a five-game winless skid and started a stretch of strong play where the team’s sole blemish was a loss in Orlando. This year, the team had two victories going into Orlando as part of a four-game undefeated skid, and hope that they can once again bounce back from a loss in central Florida.

It won’t be easy: After a rough start to the season that saw the Sounders win just one of the first ten matches they played, they’ve turned it on and now sit just one game back from an even record, and the team’s only loss in front of home fans this season came back on April 20th, in a bizarre match that saw the Sounders receive two red cards – one in the first half, giving Vancouver an advantage for a majority of the match.

The Fire have reason for hope, however, having won the two most recent meetings between the two teams – two years ago in Chicago and one in the summer of 2020 as part of the MLS is Back tournament.

Series History

All time: 4W-4D-10LLast Match: July 16, 2022: Fire 1-0 Seattle at Soldier Field, Chicago, Ill.Last Away Match: March 1, 2020: Seattle 2-1 Fire at CenturyLink (now Lumen) Field, Seattle, Wa.

Recent Form

Seattle Sounders

The Sounders were down 2-0 against FC Dallas and still trailed 2-1 until the 88th minute, when Jordan Morris scored and then scored again deep into stoppage time to give Seattle a 3-2 win. Seattle now has just two defeats since the start of May; a massive turnaround for a team that had just two wins in their first 10 matches. The Sounders last – and only – loss at home came on April 20th against Vancouver and the team is now 3W-5D-1L at Lumen Field.

Fire

A week after defeating Toronto 4-1, the Fire went to Orlando and allowed four goals en route to a 4-2 loss. The Fire went down in the fourth minute and trailed the rest of the match, despite controlling the play for the majority of the game. The loss ended the team’s four game unbeaten run and was the first time this season that the Fire have scored multiple goals and failed to get a result, and is just the second time this season the Fire have scored multiple goals and failed to get a win after their 2-2 draw in the season opener against Philadelphia.

The Storyline

The Fire find themselves in an unusual situation: They are last place in the Eastern Conference and yet a mere three points out of the 9th and final postseason post in the conference.

Over the past few years, the team has often been near the bottom of the table, but never actually dead last this late in the season. Yet when it happened last Saturday night, it honestly didn’t feel like a lot had changed. Part of that could be that it was the only game out of the last five that the team’s played in where they didn’t take points, but if you can get two wins in a row and still find yourself at the bottom of the table, it’s not a great look.

Being just three points out of the postseason helps, but let’s be clear: The team very much is on the outside looking in of the playoff picture, and my back-of-the-napkin math says the team has about a one-in-ten shot of breaking its postseason drought this year. It isn’t so much about the fact that the team is three points behind the ninth place team, but instead, it’s mostly about the fact that to make it to ninth by decision day, the team has to have a better record than six teams from here on out. In other words, the team, who, to date, have had the worst record in the conference have to have at least the eighth best record in the conference for the rest of the year.

Still, if the team is looking for a model to follow, looking at the Sounders really isn’t a bad idea. They’ve been one of the league’s standard bearers for years, but had just one win through April 27th. It looked like things had gotten stale in Seattle, and things simply weren’t going their way: The offense wasn’t creating enough chances, wasn’t finishing enough of the chances they did make, and boneheaded mistakes from defenders cost the team many points.

Since then, though, they’ve figured a lot of things out, and after just one win in their first nine games (their third game of the year was suspended due to weather), they’ve notched five wins since. They’ve also looked and felt more like the Sounders teams we’ve gotten used to in previous seasons.

There’s signs that it could all still implode in Seattle – their leading scorer (both of 2024 as well as throughout team history) Raúl Ruidíaz as well as key defender Nouhou have both been suspended by the team after a reported locker room argument – but for now, the team is playing well and Schmetzer’s willingness to bench two key players is proof that he’s still willing to emphasize the importance of the collective in Seattle.

Still, facing a weakened opponent opens the door more for a Fire result, and the team is motivated. Asked about the potential of completing a set of wins in Cascadia, Fire Head Coach Frank Klopas said “we had a good run up to Orlando…. There were stretches that we played well and we created a lot of chances… we’ve played them well there, even in the past. WE’ve dropped games really late in the games, so I think it’s an opportunity to go there against a good team and try to get back on track now.”

With just fourteen matches left in the MLS season after this one, if the team is going to get back on track, the time to do it is now.

Seattle Players to Watch

Jordan Morris: The last time the Fire were in Seattle was for the team’s first game with Raphaël Wicky as head coach and Georg Heitz as Sporting Director. The Fire were in control of the match and looked ready to kick off the team’s new era with three points, until Jordan Morris came on as a half time sub and scored a brace. Last week, the now-29-year-old Seattle native scored a brace starting in the 88th minute against FC Dallas. He’s still got it, and he’s got seven goals on the year already, putting him on pace to reach double digits in that department for the second consecutive season.

Albert Rusnák: Rusnák developed a reputation as one of the better attacking midfielders in the league during his time in Real Salt Lake, but since joining the Sounders ahead of the 2022 season, Rusák played a more defensive role deeper in the midfield. No more. Now paying a No. 10 central attacking midfield role, the former Slovak international leads the Sounders in assist with nine. He only has one goal to date, but has been significantly underperforming his underlying numbers. He knows where the back of the net is, and he knows how to find others that do as well.

Fire Keys to Victory

• Don’t dig your own grave: Last week, the Fire doubled up Orlando’s shots and shots on target, won the xG battle and outplayed their opponent for the last hour of the game. None of that mattered, though, because they put themselves in a three goal hole in the game’s first hour. That’s hard to come back from. If the team had simply started on the right foot, weather than the wrong one, before shooting itself in the right food and then outplaying their opponent, they very likely would have had a result

• No reentry: The Sounders plan for offense basically about winning the ball quickly in transition and then winning 1v1 battles to get the ball into the six yard box with more players than the other team and letting their skilled players take it from there into the back of the net. Since the Fire transitioned to playing with three center backs, they’ve been better – though not perfect – at the last part. If they can slow down – or stop – the entry in the final this by winning midfield battles, then the game should be theirs.

Panel Predictions

Alex Calabrese

Prediction: Seattle 2-2 Fire

Jiggly Carollo

"It's the end of something I did not want to end/Beginning of hard times to come"The Fire have fallen back down to Earth. Well, the summer bump happens while it happens. It's not going to end well. But it'll end exactly how we'd expected it to.

Prediction: Seattle 3-1 Fire

Tim Hotze

The Fire should be able to play well against Seattle but even during their rocky start, they were impossible to play against at home. I'm open to being surprised here, though.

Prediction: Seattle 2-1 Fire

Phil

Prediction: Seattle 1-2 Fire

Match Information and How to Watch

Date and Time: Saturday, June 29, 2024, 9:30 PM CT
Location: Lumen Field, Seattle, Wa.
Forecast: 71’F expected at kickoff, winds at 4 mph, 76% cloud cover and a 3% chance of precipitation
TV: Apple TV – MLS Season Pass