Paint it Schwarz: Chicago Fire at New York Red Bulls Match 8 Preview

The Fire head out to New Jersey for their only road game in the month of April as they take on the New York Red Bulls.

After a gutsy win over the Dynamo at home, the Fire are looking for their first road win against the Red Bulls. That task won’t be easy: The Red Bulls are currently atop the Supporters Shield standings and have been flying with a reinforced squad and a new coach in Sandro Schwarz, who has so far won rave reviews with his ability to take the tried-and-true Red Bulls game model and evolving it past a pure “energy drink” high press system into one that can also play out of possession.

Series History

All time: 33W-15D-23LLast Match: September 30, 2023: Fire 1-0 New York at Red Bull Arena, Harrison, NJ

Recent Form

New York

Record: 4W-2D-1L, 14 pts, 11 GF, 7 GA

This new-look Red Bulls team, featuring a new coach and significant squad investment in the form of Emil Forsberg has had a strong start to their season, with just one loss, and having notched some impressive victories including a 4-0 win over Inter Miami. That match, along with a 2-1 victory over Dallas in early March, gives the Red Bulls a perfect record so far this season at home. They notched a  2-1 win in Cincinnati in their previous match this season.

Fire

Record: 2W-2D-3L, 8 pts, 11 GF, 14 GA, -3 GD

The Fire notched their second win of the season at home, getting revenge against the Houston Dynamo team that ended the Fire’s quest for the U.S. Open Cup last year, in a gritty, physical game that somehow only saw one yellow card issued to each side.

The return to winning form was welcome, after the Fire had their worst performance of the year just six days earlier against Atlanta on Easter Sunday.

The Storyline

Believe it or not, we’re already one-fifth of the way through the MLS regular season, far enough into the proceedings to have pundits talking about teams being “surprising,” “meeting expectations,” or falling short.

Last season, Red Bulls fans would have told you that the team had stagnated. A lack of investment in the squad was limiting the team’s potential, and rather than being an integral part of Red Bull global, the team felt like the forgotten stepchild, with relatively little movement to New Jersey from other Red Bulls clubs around the world. Red Bulls ownership promised “significant investment” in the squad in the offseason, but few of the RB faithful were holding their breath.

Many, in fact, believe Troy Lesene, that their interim head coach for most of last season, was hard done by when he was dismissed after taking the reins midway through the Red Bulls campaign. (Lesene had a soft landing, winding up at D.C. United, another Eastern Conference team that has exceeded expectations so far this year.) However, Red Bulls made good on their promise – hiring Sandro Schwarz as head coach, formerly of Bundesliga club Hertha Berlin and sending Emil Forsberg from sister club RB Leipzig to RBNY.

The result, so far, has been a reinvigorated club that looks better than it has since Chris Armas and Jesse Marsch had the team playing like a contender. As it stands, the Red Bulls are currently in pole position of the Supporters Shield race (though the Vancouver Whitecaps have a game in hand and are ahead on a points-per-game basis).

The Fire, meanwhile, are more-or-less treading water with where they were at this point last season with 8 points after seven games (they had 10 points after seven matches last season), though on a qualitative level, the team really hasn’t been outplayed except in the match against Atlanta.

Yet we’re not so far into the season where a single match can’t sway the narrative. While a win for the Red Bulls would help cement their status as a true contender this season, a win for the Fire would almost certainly put the team in a playoff spot and just three points behind the Red Bulls and might – just might – convince some skeptics that this Fire team truly is improved from the squad that failed to make the playoffs last year.

Red Bulls Players to Watch

Emil Forsberg: The Red Bulls’ biggest offseason acquisition joined the team from their sister club RB Leipzig and represents a clear upgrade over Luquinhas, who played in that position as a DP for the team over the past two seasons. Forsberg, at 32, is not at the peak of his powers but was still playing Champions League football for Leipzig last fall. Since arriving in MLS, he’s simply been highly effective, and with his playmaking abilities the Red Bulls look like a much stronger team than we’ve seen over the past few seasons.

Lewis Morgan: The 27-year-old winger from Paisley, Scotland is having a career year for the Red Bulls. After missing almost all of last season with a hip injury, Morgan is making up for lost time and has scored six goals in seven matches (five starts), tying him for the league’s lead. Morgan initially came to MLS as part of Inter Miami’s debut squad in 2020 before being traded to the Red Bulls a year later, and started to thrive in the Red Bulls system-focused, high-press style of play, scoring 14 goals in 32 matches in 2022 after scoring just 7 goals in the prior two seasons combined. He’s dangerous, pure and simple.

Honorable Mention: Cory Burke: The man is simply a Fire killer. In his 11 matches against the Fire (10 in MLS, one in the U.S. Open Cup), Burke has scored 10 goals against the Fire. In his first match facing the Men In Red in 2018, Burke, then with the Philadelphia Union played the full 90 minutes and notched a goal and an assist. Six games later in the reverse fixture, he added a brace. In U.S. Open Cup play four weeks later, he scored the Union’s first two goals as Philadelphia went on to a 3-0 victory that ended the Fire’s campaign in the semifinals. His luck continued with the Red Bulls last year, scoring a goal en route to a 1:1 draw, though in the last match in New Jersey, he failed to score - one of just three times he’s failed to do so against the Fire. He's been injured of late and has been training on the side all week, meaning he's unlikely to be available, but if he is, assume Sandro Schwarz will find a way to give him minutes.

Fire Keys to Victory

• This is how you do it: Even though the Red Bulls are no longer just a high-pressing team, they are still very much a team that loves to press. They will give you the ball in your own half just to chase you down and make you cough it up. Brian Gutiérrez’s goal shows exactly how you beat that system – Shaqiri’s pass bypasses six Houston players giving Guiérrez a clean look on goal with goalkeeper Steve Clark in the way. The Fire need a lot more of that.
• Mind the Ps and Qs: At the other side of the pitch, the loan goal against the Fire last week is exactly the kind of thing that the Fire can’t be doing if they want a result in New Jersey. A single careless pass turned the ball over and suddenly the Dynamo’s Ibrahim Aliyu was bearing down on Chris Brady’s net with passing options on both sides, leaving the Fire defense stranded. That is the kind of play that the Red Bulls practice scoring off of day in, day out and this squad is good enough to punish teams that do that consistently. The Fire can still build out of the back against the Red Bulls (in fact, they may have to), but they need to stay laser-focused for all 90 minutes or they will be punished for it.

Panel Predictions

Alex Calabrese

This is grim. And I really hate to do it. But the Fire have not looked good at all in their last three games. Even the 2-1 home win over Houston was incredibly lackluster and depended on two rare moments of brilliance from Xherdan Shaqiri. Red Bull is doing their thing right now, and unlike the Fire, has an identity that will contribute to a convincing win at home.

Prediction: New York 4-0 Chicago

Jiggly Carollo

"It's a half an inch of water and you think you're gonna drown/That's the way that the world goes round" One day you're up, the next you're down. The Fire won, but without any real reason. They weren't improved, they weren't worse either. But they were clearly unconvincing. So against a team that's genuinely good right now? The Fire are cooked.

Prediction: New York 4-1 Chicago

Christian Hirschboeck

NYRB are good. The Fire are the Fire. In the ultimate culmination of defensive fragility and offensive potency, both teams will forgo defending and play what in summary is 11v11 goalie wars.

Prediction: New York 3-3 Chicago

Tim Hotze

This game could go a bunch of ways but the fact is, the Red Bulls are improved but not as much as their record suggests, and the Fire haven’t gotten some points they played for. Sooner or later the twain shall meet.

Prediction: New York 2-2 Chicago

Matt Shabelman

Thriller!

Prediction: New York 2-3 Chicago

Match Information and How to Watch

Date and Time: Saturday, April 13, 2024, 6:30 PM CTLocation: Red Bull Arena, Harrison, NJForecast: 54’F  46% humidity expected at kickoff, winds W at 15mph, 35% cloud cover because and a 3% precipitationTV: Apple TV - MLS Season Pass