Where the Chicago Fire Stand in Playoff Endgame
The Chicago Fire made a giant leap closer to MLS postseason qualification for the first time since 2017 when they defeated the Columbus Crew 2-0 on Saturday. The Men in Red's long-awaited return to the playoffs is now so close they can taste it, but there is still so much to play for in the final three games of the regular season.
Here's exactly where they stand entering Tuesday's road game against Inter Miami, and what the Fire need to do to officially secure their postseason ticket.
98% certainty
According to PlayoffStatus.com, the Fire's win on Saturday boosted their playoff qualification chances to 98%, the highest they have been in years. They are just two points from eliminating the 10th-placed New York Red Bulls, who are the only other team left in the wildcard chase. In essence, it would take a total collapse from the Fire to fail to clinch, combined with a perfect storm of Red Bull wins in a pair of difficult games against Columbus and Cincinnati.
Because the magic number is down to 2, one win will be enough to clinch. The Fire can do that as soon as Tuesday, because they'll face Inter Miami in a make-up game at Chase Stadium in Fort Lauderdale. Miami have been an unpredictable opponent in recent weeks, winning 4-0 at NYCFC a few days before stumbling to a 1-1 draw against already-eliminated Toronto on Saturday, so anything is possible in this one.
The only scenario in which the Fire do not qualify is if they win no games and draw no more than one, and the Red Bulls must win out. If that happens, the Fire will have nobody but themselves to blame, given the relative ease of their remaining schedule, but at this point, that reality seems incredibly unlikely.
Wildcard likely
The Fire's return to the postseason will more than likely require passage through the wildcard game, a one-off match set for October 22nd. The 8th and 9th placed teams in each conference will face off at the home of the higher-seeded team.
Currently, there is an 81% chance the Fire will play in the wildcard game. Within that, there is a 39% possibility of a home wildcard game at Soldier Field, and a 42% chance of a road wildcard game. Given the results on Saturday, both in Chicago and around the league, the Columbus Crew now appear by far the most likely opponent for such a game, at 69% odds.
As there's a more than two-thirds chance that the Fire will have a wildcard game either home or away against Columbus, the dominant nature of Saturday's 2-0 win is a promising sign. The Crew were expected to be Supporters' Shield and MLS Cup contenders this season and showed their quality in a 4-2 opening day comeback win over the Fire in February, but have collapsed in the last few months and are now on the bubble between the wildcard positions and the playoffs proper. There is a 36% chance the Fire would have a home game against Columbus (making it the most likely wildcard fixture presently) and a 33% chance of a road game at Lower.com Field.
Alternatively, if results unfold differently, there is an 8% chance of a wildcard game against Orlando City, who the Fire are undefeated against in 2025. There is a 2% chance of facing Nashville SC or Charlotte FC, and incredibly unlikely possiblities do exist where they would play Inter Miami or New York City FC. Nonetheless, if the Fire play in the wildcard, the pathways a clear – likely Columbus, and if they advance, it would be on to a best-of-three series with the Eastern Conference winner (likely Philadelphia or Cincinnati at this stage).
Better than 8th?
Crucially, there is a 17% chance the Fire can surpass the need for a wildcard game and advance directly to the first round of the playoffs. It is unlikely, but very possible given the remaining schedule. Essentially, it would require a minor implosion from Orlando City, who would likely need to lose three of their remaining four MLS matches (against Cincinnati, Columbus, Vancouver, and Toronto). Columbus would also need to drop points (unless the Fire win out). The Fire would almost certainly need to win both of their last two games of the season (home against Toronto and away against New England), and a win over Inter Miami on Tuesday would also not hurt.
If the Fire manage to finish as high as 7th, they will get the full week off and not have to worry about an October 22nd wildcard. Their reward would be a best-of-three series against the team that finishes second, which will be one of Philadelphia, Cincinnati, or Miami. First things first, however, Gregg Berhalter and Co. will want to put any possibility of elimination to bed, and they'll know that a win against Miami on Tuesday or Toronto on Saturday would be enough to get that done.
